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sinfulducking OP t1_ixc0l1s wrote

Reply to comment by MasterMCD in A plot of the goals scored per game in the 2022 MLS season. [OC] by sinfulducking

I’m showing how 476 random outputs from a Poisson distribution with lambda=2.96 would look, however I can see how this may likely not the best way to go about it. Do you think it adds anything useful to this plot, or is there something similar that would be better?

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MasterMCD t1_ixc0pjo wrote

I still don’t understand how this would yield a continuous curve as you’ve indicated here

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eric5014 t1_ixc8nj2 wrote

Instead of the curve, red horizontal lines in each column for the Poisson value for each number. That would be more accurate and indicate how close the real values are to it.

The Poisson distribution is exactly what we'd expect if goals were random occurrences and no extra time. So no surprise but a good example for anyone explaining Poisson.

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rallenpx t1_ixc9sl9 wrote

Am I reading this right in thinking there's (slightly) more 3 goal games than we would expect?

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eric5014 t1_ixcaag8 wrote

Yes. 3 would be 22.4%.

5.2%, 15.3%, 22.7%, 22.4%, 16.6%, 9.8%, 4.5% for 0 to 6.

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