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thunderflame t1_j0bsds8 wrote

Reply to comment by eric5014 in The pandemic’s true death toll - The Economist's daily updated estimate of excess deaths around the world by statisticalanalysis_

Apologies if I'm misunderstanding but is your claim that a sharp jump in deaths this year can be attributed to baby boomers hitting 75? If so wouldn't you expect to see a steady, gradual increase over the past 5 years rather than what it sounds like is a step change? The categorisation of "deaths in the 75+ group" may have a spike but the likelihood of all cause deaths shouldn't be that much higher at 75 than 74 right?

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eric5014 t1_j0czpp1 wrote

You're right that it's a continuous thing, not just reaching a particular number. The early boomers are a big enough cohort now that them being a few years older makes a significant difference in death numbers compared to the average of last 5 years (and ABS skipped 2020 being atypical). In fact risk of death increases faster the older you get, so as the decade progresses we'll see bigger increases and exceed a trailing 5 year average by more than we do now.

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