Comments

You must log in or register to comment.

throwaway_890i t1_j9vf0ba wrote

If alien civilisations created ASI and it was their great filter, this still would not explain why we have not encountered their ASI.

12

Jayco424 t1_j9vheu9 wrote

That is something I almost asked. Which would suggest to me that creation of an ASI is probably very difficult or maybe not possible as we currently understand it.

1

Kinexity t1_j9vqhhb wrote

ASI is unneccessary in space conquest. Just AGI is enough.

0

Shiyayori t1_j9veev5 wrote

  1. Technological singularises result in a culture disconnected from the desire to expand endlessly for no reason; it’s possible after just a few generations that virtual reality is that much more preferable. Any expansion is done out of need not want,

  2. Life as we are is simply that rare.

7

Cryptizard t1_j9vlbuz wrote

>which is statistically very unlikely

What makes you say that? There are multiple studies that suggest we are at the very, very beginning of the time period that the universe is able to support life. The universe is only 14 billion years old, and it will have conditions for life to arise for another 10-100 trillion years. Statistically, the overwhelming majority of lifeforms (99.999%) that will ever evolve will come after us.

We reached the advanced intelligence stage almost as fast as we possibly could. Our solar system was one of the earliest ones with abundant heavy elements. Life evolved very shortly after our planet's formation, less than 1 billion years after. It has taken us 4 billion years to reach the level we are at now. Our planet will naturally become uninhabitable in another half a billion years, as the sun gets too hot and we lose all the CO2 in the atmosphere. On a cosmic scale, we had a very small window to actually get the intelligence and civilization stuff worked out.

There is also the inflationary argument made by Alan Guth, that the number of universes is growing exponentially and so almost every civilization that ever arrises is the "first" one in their own universe. I'll let you google that one if you haven't heard it.

6

Mortal-Region t1_j9w0tqc wrote

>The universe is only 14 billion years old, and it will have conditions for life to arise for another 10-100 trillion years.

Which begs an interesting question -- why so early? If the timeline is 7 meters long, why do we happen to find ourselves in the first millimeter? It gets even more acute if you allow for the possibility of digital civilizations. They'd survive the black hole era, so now the timeline is many times the diameter of the Milky Way. Yet here we are in the first millimeter. And that millimeter represents the entire time since the Big Bang. Considering that computers were invented less than a century ago, it all seems very fishy.

1

Cryptizard t1_j9w1idt wrote

That's what the inflationary argument addresses. If every universe creates 10^30 new universes a second (one of the interpretations of cosmic inflation and bubble universes), then at any point in time there will be exponentially more "young" universes than old ones, and so almost every civilization will be the first civilizations in their universes.

2

Mortal-Region t1_j9w2oaj wrote

But would it explain us being so early within the timeline of the first civilization?

1

wntersnw t1_j9vhu43 wrote

  1. The wider universe doesn't actually exist and is basically a hologram of the simulation.

  2. All civilizations wirehead themselves before reaching the singularity

5

Mortal-Region t1_j9vjeyi wrote

  1. There has yet to be a singularity event in the Milky Way which would suggest that humans are the first technologically advanced civilization in the galaxy since it's formation, which is statistically very unlikely.

If the Great Filter is in our past, then it's not unlikely for us to be the first technological civilization. In fact, we should expect to be the first because it's unlikely for multiple species to make it through the filter simultaneously. I guess it's still weird that we made it through the filter in the first place. But it's the same kind of weirdness that arises from the fact that we happen to be intelligent humans rather than slugs. It's only weird if you're intelligent enough to think about such things.

What is weird, I think, is that we happen to exist right at the moment of the singularity. A galactic civilization would have a lifespan of billions or even trillions of years, yet here we are, witnessing the birth of AI, space-travel, etc -- the very tech that makes galactic civilization possible. The first electronic computer was invented less than 80 years ago!

4

Vaellyth t1_j9wqshc wrote

It boggles my mind. I've been trying to write a sci-fi novel for more than a decade with plausible / believable tech but it's so hard to imagine what things will be like in another 50 years, let alone 500, beyond smartphones evolving into implants or an intrinsic AR.

2

Ivan_The_8th t1_j9votwt wrote

Truth is - the lightspeed is incredibly slow, and it's the limit to how fast a civilization can expand.

2

Iffykindofguy t1_j9vcntx wrote

You know the fermi paradox isnt like some naturally occurring laws right?

1

Jayco424 t1_j9vh7q4 wrote

Of course it's not, but that doesn't mean it's somehow worthless. The Fermi-Paradox and the vast body of works - and potential solutions - surrounding it are one of the most sound logical hypothesis - or rather a series of logical conjectures - about how in vast universe full of opportunities for life, we have so far observed none. It have been the subject of a mountain of serious scholarly work for the past 70 years since it's postulation, and to this day scientists in the search for extraterrestrial life are still posing various answers to it.

3

nillouise t1_j9vxbsi wrote

It seem the most possible reason is the light travel is impossible. Anyway, we will know the answer nearly.

1