>but I do believe that AI competent enough to do most work will be.

That is the likely trajectory of existing progress, anything much beyond that is very speculative at this point.

Just because that capability being developed is more likely than not, it doesn't mean a life of leisure will happen for the avg person. Cultural trajectories are very difficult to alter, the world views of certain subcultures are vehemently against such outcomes. You might have to wait until attrition removes most of the 60s or even the 70s and older generations from the game board before a life of leisure is more likely than not, perhaps another 30-40 years.

>The Economics of Automation: What Does Our Machine Future Look Like?