simcoder t1_iz0idpk wrote
Reply to comment by Arakui2 in U.S. Space Force chief: The use of space technology in Ukraine ‘is what we can expect in the future’ by Corbulo2526
Let's say Elon deploys his dream of a 30k constellation and that thing runaway chain reacts with each other.
Very often, you'll hear from the fanbase that could happen but it wouldn't be a big deal because it will all deorbit in 5 years.
But it actually would be a very big deal for everyone involved in space. Anything between the upper shells and the ground would likely be very negatively affected up to and including getting destroyed.
A lot of people would likely end up being very very unhappy that the hubris of a 30k constellation caused the world to have to put their space ambitions on hold for 5 years and sacrifice whatever got in the way of the carnage.
What you're doing here is very similar.
A space war generating a bunch of debris would be very bad for space business and could cause either a partial or complete shutdown of space while everything clears out. Any debris higher than VLEO would likely have knock-on effects for years or decades down the road.
And the very fact we had the first space war resulting in a bunch of space assets getting blown up would likely have a significant cooling of people's space ambitions in general. And could result in earth orbit becoming a military no man's land if the military tensions continue.
Arakui2 t1_iz0k2ud wrote
Ugh. Not this shit again. I'll go through it real quick because I can't be bothered arguing with people who ignore common sense specifically when it come to starlink.
1- Starlink satellites cannot and will not collide. Spacex keeps them at different altitudes and monitors them constantly, with redirections taking place if they are on course for a collision. Spacex will never allow a collision to occur as it hurts them more than anyone else.
2- Any debris from a starlink collision will burn up in the upper atmosphere within 90 days, it is physically impossible for it to stay in orbit. The 5 year number is with constant firing of their ion engines, not without them.
3- I have explained this time and time again. There is not enough potential debris his high LEO to stifle spaceflight. LEO has more than enough but it will all burn up within a small time frame.
4- If you're going so be this whataboutist over this, war in space would be a war on the ground too. It would go nuclear, and humanity would be wiped out. Therefore, there is not point in even considering a kessler beyond that.
simcoder t1_iz0lgsc wrote
I was just quoting the number the original Kessler guy used.
"We are talking at most 5 years for all the debris to clear out, at which point LEO is open again."
lol
​
I think the point still stands though. You're basically saying a space war would be no big deal because space is big and Starlink is low.
But I think that's horrifically oversimplifying things. You yourself mentioned the elephant in the room, ie nuclear war. All of this plays into that. And further calls into question the aggressive militarization of space given it could lead to that.
It's like you guys are making my argument for me. :P
Arakui2 t1_iz0lyuz wrote
You miss that he was talking about everything in LEO, yet you specifically mentioned starlink which is far less susceptible to the point of it being impossible to create a kessler.
And yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. Space is big, starlink can't create a kessler, and a space war will never happen just like a nuclear war will never happen. You aren't even arguing anything anymore, so it isn't possible for me to argue for you lmao
simcoder t1_iz0mkdf wrote
A nuclear will never happen? lol
I didn't realize that you were so naive...
And a space war is almost certain to happen eventually. Same with a nuclear war. That's what humans do. It's a shame but that's reality for you.
To ignore that sad reality of humanity just makes it that much more likely when go around aggressively militarizing space.
Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments