NorridAU t1_izaexuw wrote on December 7, 2022 at 5:43 PM

Reply to comment by Most_Expert_8080 in A Sports Betting Proposal Heads to the Vermont Legislature by BudsKind802

Unfortunately it’s a poor tax for people that misunderstand odds. When the prize gets large like the recent $1b prize, it’s due to the odds of winning decreasing overall.

Most_Expert_8080 t1_izaglc6 wrote on December 7, 2022 at 5:53 PM

The odds are the same for powerball no matter how large the prize is. It is the same game you play.

NorridAU t1_izaie9k wrote on December 7, 2022 at 6:05 PM

Right right, the jackpot odds are 1:292,000,000. It was 1:175 million when we saw the ‘peaks’ of 300-400 million.

random_vermonter t1_izbmwdc wrote on December 7, 2022 at 10:33 PM

That's why I call the lottery the poor tax whenever someone blabs about the current jackpot. I only buy scratch tickets and rarely because they don't pay anything anymore. I do get annoyed by idiots holding up lines so they can pay the poor tax.

HeadPen5724 t1_izbvo5x wrote on December 7, 2022 at 11:35 PM

The odds don’t change regardless of how big the jackpot?

thisoneisnotasbad t1_izbyq5d wrote on December 7, 2022 at 11:57 PM

I think the implication is more tickets means more possible winners, smaller total prize, lower odds of collecting the whole payout. Maybe not, maybe he just doesn’t understand math.

HeadPen5724 t1_izc16r2 wrote on December 8, 2022 at 12:15 AM

The statement as worded certainly implies the latter.

NorridAU t1_izcdi2s wrote on December 8, 2022 at 1:48 AM

My bad joining two thoughts into one. The odds of jackpot on Powerball are 1:295m(up from 175m), or so freaking low that I’d be more likely to be bit by a shark, while being struck by lightning, on the CT river. Or maybe a better analogy is the blackjack card shoe is 9 instead of 5 decks?

That jackpot is only so large nowadays compared to earlier games is from the streak of dud tickets increasing, not because more tickets are selling overall. I believe they increased the # of balls by 10 to get that shift in odds. It’s not you vs your neighbor or the conglomerates that buy when the prize pools get high. It’s us vs spinning balls in a bin. I don’t think it matters weather their is 1 or 15 winning ticket holders, it’s the ones that came up that drawing.

Now you do have a 1:25 odds of getting a $4 winner though. $50 to guarantee $4? I’d rather buy a candy or glizzy from the gas station rollers for the guaranteed value of lunch.

Maybe it’s still a crummy explanation of why the lotto, and specifically pick-x games, are a poor tax.