Submitted by nickyfrags69 t3_124kmrd in wallstreetbets
First off, the S&P 500 is about 1000 points below ATH. We’re still about 20% off the highs. For sure things can, and probably will (eventually) get much worse, but there’s also a chance you dumbasses already got your crash and you haven’t yet realized markets are forward looking. Realistically, we’re probably due for something much worse than the 20% drop from ATH that already happened, but I just wanted to make this point in case the market never dips again. What might be most realistic is a slow-ish decline over a longer time frame, which is a lot harder to profit from then some sort of sudden crash, which is a lot rarer of an event; the market could also just be sideways for a decade, who the hell knows.
More importantly, I understand the opportunity a crash provides, but you shouldn’t be rooting for a crash. Do you know what crashes really look like? A shit ton of people, probably including you since most of you are brain dead, losing everything, or at the very least, watching the value of your assets disintegrate quickly.
When crashes happen, most people get fucked. You will not time the crash. Most people won’t. The few who do will have movies made about them, with Christian Bale eating crayons for months to get in character. And you know what happens when the market crashes after everyone loses their shit? The ultra rich just buy up more of the market at a discount, because they’re the only ones with assets. You will not be one of the privileged few who comes out unscathed. Way smarter people than you will also be fucked. You won’t see it coming if it happens and if you did, you won’t have the assets (or brain power) to profit. Most of you turned yearly losses in the longest bull market ever, or maybe you weren’t even investing then… but now you’re gonna profit somehow when the rest of the country (and possibly world) is watching their assets deteriorate?
I’m not anything close to a permabull, but there’s a reason why most people just keep buying the market. I know a lot of you regards only know how to buy 0DTE SPY calls, but there’s a thing called DCAing that was recently invented by smart and conservative investors that generally benefits you in the long run. Of course, most of you won’t live that long, but if you do, you’ll notice that there’s a shit ton of people just parking their money in things like the S&P500 and buying with every paycheck. That, people who are contrarian investors, and people who areactual permabulls, are the forces the crash is working against.
Realistically, all of us will be fucked no matter which side we’re on. But if you keep hammering SPY puts and losing all your money only for the “big crash” you’ve been waiting for to happen in a year, you’re just as wrong as the classic permabull idiot. So stop rooting for it because it just means we’re all fucked anyways.
ETA: I knew that the average reading comprehension ability in this sub was that of a goldfish, so I figured I would have to further explain as it seems some of you in the comments don't seem to fully follow what I'm saying. This is not a bullish or bearish post. I'm not predicting anything here.
The market could shit the bed tomorrow, or in the near future. It could also stay in a bear market territory that slowly gets worse over the course of the next decade or so; it's probably far more likely that the pain in the markets that people are predicting is a slow burn that few will profit from rather than some sort of flash crash that ends it quickly, which is what many of you seem to be looking for and lighting money on fire in 0DTE puts to try to time. Certainly if the bank situation continues to get worse (though the government will likely keep bailing them out), a more rapid crash could still happen, that just doesn't seem as likely as a sustained period of economic downturn dragging down the markets. The far less likely option, though still a possibility, could be that the worst is over and you already missed the crash - this is probably not the case but should at least be considered by an informed investor, which obviously a lot of people in here aren't.
My point was solely that there's too many idiots in here rooting for a big crash, and not considering the implications of that, or the fact that very few of you will profit from it.