Brazil

Submitted by TraderZane t3_yim2ih in wallstreetbets

Brazil just finished their run-off election with Lula the former president beating the incumbent in the closest election in Brazil's democratic victory and the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has been parroting Trump leading up to the election and has yet to concede. He was a former military leader with the support of the military and in the past has spread the sentiment that he isn't leaving. I wanted exposure to the instability of the country so I bought puts in an ETF there for after the transition of power in the new year. The Brazilian market is generally up today on Lula's victory but I think the instability is not priced in. I chose the ETF EWZ as it has a higher finance exposure which should be the first sector to hurt. I see at least some instability and at most a Coup d'état. Happy Profiting on suffering welcome to capitalism.

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Positions Jan 20 23 Put. $17 x20, $21x29, $25x11, $29x2

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Pentup_Cork t1_iujfvr6 wrote

Interesting perspective. I live in a community that has a thriving Brazilian community and I’ve many friends from across the country from its southern most tip to the big well known tourist areas. Not one shared this perspective of the incumbent. In fact last night many were gathered next door yelling Brazil is going to become Cuba as the incoming president is a communist ( their words ) I’m curious as to what going to happen next.

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Ghost_Ride_the_Trip t1_iujt3vk wrote

It's like people who say Democrats are communists, take it with a huge heap of salt.

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TraderZane OP t1_iujkv04 wrote

That is interesting to see the other side of that I mean the incoming president did serve over a year in jail on corruption charges I can surely see that perspective and apprehension.

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mnelso32 t1_iujdn7o wrote

I like this idea. I think it'll come down to whether Bolsonaro concedes within the next few days or not.

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VisualMod t1_iujanhs wrote

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VisualMod t1_iujaodg wrote

>I completely agree with your assessment of the situation in Brazil. The incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro, has been extremely hostile towards the poor and working class people of Brazil, and I believe that his defeat at the hands of former President Lula is a positive step for the country. However, I believe that there is still a great deal of instability in Brazil, and I think that this will be reflected in the stock market over the next few months. Thanks for sharing your trade idea with us!

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