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t1_iuhdadn wrote

Your puts are gonna get fucked

35

t1_iuhl77a wrote

How? This week is red...

−8

t1_iuhstwe wrote

It's Monday morning and the market isn't even open yet.....

Maybe wait until tomorrow before telling us the "week" is red?

11

t1_iuhyejm wrote

Bro blood Monday and fed rates hikes on Wednesday and all big tech companies except apple did really bad on er last week no way it will be green

1

t1_iui94vv wrote

oh shit you already know how this week is going to go? How is next week going to go? Please nostradumbass tell us so we can become rich.

1

t1_iuhfw1a wrote

I think going short at this price has its merits. I personally would’ve waited for the Fed on Wednesday. You miss the initially move, but at least you’ll get confirmation on you market tanking back down before jumping onboard. If the Fed says anything about pausing future rate hikes your puts are toast

27

t1_iuhs52x wrote

Based off past speech comments, I believe we have yet to hit the levels for certain data they base decisions on. Since those numbers are still slowly ticking up and holding steady over the months. I believe they will hike an additional 75bps in order to “try and tame inflation “ As they’ve stated prior they want to see job losses and pain before they decide to slow or pause hikes. I believe we’re looking at hikes until January before they reflect on market conditions/ data. From there depending on conditions, they’ll either continue the hikes / lower the hike % or take pause to reflect.

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t1_iuiqygl wrote

Wide iron condors or strangles are the play imo. I don't think we're getting much new information tomorrow.

75 bp hike this month and 50 bp hike in December. Already priced in, metrics are generally trending in the right direction, and the hikes take time to make their way through the system.

5

t1_iuhkmw2 wrote

Which they just might.

3

t1_iuhqc6o wrote

Based on what?

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t1_iui9i55 wrote

Liquidity crisis happening across the worldimg

−1

t1_iuiagr6 wrote

Isn’t low liquidity how you get inflation under control? And that was the goal of the rate hikes? But now it’s a crisis while inflation is still above 8%? I don’t understand any of this. Seems like people just got addicted to free money and are throwing a hissy fit now that it’s drying up.

3

t1_iuibjb2 wrote

Not really, the whole point of this inflation is supply constraint on oil and food thanks to russia. You can stop demand by lowering liquidity on paper, but it doest work in the real world. You are gonna have to eat and transport goods everyday which is fuel by oil and food, fed hiking mortages to 8%, making everyones 401k -60%, crashing a few central bank does help you get more food and oil it makes the inflation issue goes rampant untill a depression occurs and people have no choice cuz they cant even eat and work.

On the global liquidity problem, china, japan, saudi have 1 - 3% inflation when US raise fed rates to 4% and mortage rates to 8% they have to follow leading up to 9% in mortage rate(which most of their people uses flexi rates) and 5% (business loan rates) which slows down the economy making people jobless and starts a defualt cascade. They are over the point of paying the for the US mistakes and have been offloading their USD and tbills, no one is paying for bidens mistake when their people are suffering

1

t1_iuhgdc8 wrote

Dude or dudette, hit that close button on open and save some $. We are going up this week with a bit of a hiccup on Thursday, but Fed seems priced in in this sick fictional market. You could also roll them as you will be right on this play, but you are early imo

13

t1_iui9egn wrote

how can you price in a decision that has yet to happen? You don't know which way the fed will go, how can you price that in?

3

t1_iuiek2v wrote

These guys know exactly the way the Fed is going to go because the Fed told them. They are pricing in another 1.5 points I'd bet and have models on more. .75 this week . They price it in because if the Fed pivots, great but they wont care because it's now just bonus . If you were investing that much money, wouldn't you price that in as well, even if it doesent happen?

1

t1_iuhu2dg wrote

Early for sure. SPY will hit $360 eventually in a couple of months I think.

1

t1_iuhz013 wrote

Yeah, I'm not a huge fan of rolling options, just because its what I want to do when I'm chasing, but in OPs case , I would definitely look into it. Imo , which is like an asshole...blah blah, the market will tank, not as bad as people think it will as it seems to have disconnected from the economy overall on a real time basis. It's on a bigger lag now and I believe won't catch up to reality until end of Jan beginning of February next year.

3

t1_iui2t0c wrote

Rolling is just convincing yourself you didn't lose money anyway.

3

t1_iui6aqo wrote

Yeah, it's always seemed more if an ego , I know I'm right sorta play, but hey, it has to work for someone or no one would do it.

Myself personally, and I'll share this here so not many people read it and I don't get laughed at too much is that I believe post covid market is like a train that didn't derail, but came close, it's dusting itself off and it has to start out super slow so it's slowly able to un jumble the cars up. In other words, we aren't going to see enough of a drop to make rolling this worth the premiums. This is the part I get laughed at for, I believe we had legitimate inflation, maybe up to 6 points, the rest was gouging. That's why I think the markets aren't tanking completely, I think they are raising rates into real inflation that in and of itself is inflated by overcharging. So the Fed will overshoot, but won't cause much of a recession because the market( except housing) will run faster. But another idiot opinion I have is that after 2008, the banks have compartmentalized enough that a huge drop in housing will not cause the whole market to tank again, because they do learn, not to not do the same shit to make money, but when they do the same shit to make money that tanked the economy, put it in its own box with all sorts of safeties so it doesent taint other aspects.

Wrote a novel here, sorry, but I feel better for having shared my niave opinion. Be gentle anyone reading, I'm highly regarded

5

t1_iuhjcqn wrote

This will be the FOMC that the market loves a .75 hike and JPow whispers sweet nothings of I see progress. On Wednesday.

3

t1_iuhqqyz wrote

It will make You money but not rich.

Don’t get greedy

3

t1_iuhtp83 wrote

The only problem I see is that Uncle Powell is going to flick you in the nuts by tempering the rate hike and you'll see a rally like you've never seen before. I'm not saying it's going to happen, just saying this is the risk.

3

t1_iuhlj5j wrote

My november 4 puts are looking pretty bleak. Will probably hedge with some November 4 calls today and see if one will be able to save the other.

2

t1_iuj580o wrote

Help you get rich via writing off tax loss imgimg

2

t1_iuhc4na wrote

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1

t1_iuhc4v1 wrote

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1

t1_iuhk66a wrote

In true OG WSB fashion, it's doing exactly what it's supposed to. Well done, sir.

1

t1_iuit394 wrote

I asked the magic 8 ball and it said, "better not tell you now".

I asked a little bit later and it said, "very doubtful".

1

t1_iuht2g3 wrote

Nope, it’s going to be a good Green Day for spy. We will test 395 and a possible break out above that. Green day

0

t1_iuhcwbr wrote

I'd sell those and buy around $320 strike, we're going there easy

−2

t1_iuhs2va wrote

Is the reason why you are posting it as advice and not doing that trade yourself because , you listened to yourself and now have no money to trade with?

1