you could also ask "when will modern operating systems actually start taking jobs" and ignore the reduction of secretaries, you could ask the same question about productivity tools like Excel and ignore the exploding rise of productivity of workers since 1970 etc. -> its still mostly an efficiency effect

that happens across the board, across departements and across levels, f.e. Mercedes CEO 2018 announcing cutting 10k people, especially in middle management (I still remember how disturbed people were about that announcement all over Germany at that time)

so 'taking jobs', as in completely annihilating specific jobs throughout the world -> takes centuries, dont wait for it, cultural stickiness prevails for a long duration

but expanding usefulnes of services, raising efficiency etc. creates a lot of value, and to my knowledge AI-systems are already doing that (long before GPT)

I dont trust anything IBM says nowadays and until they deliver prove for real quantum computing, this is meaningless

Altman thinks midterm, Yudkowsky longterm

the former deals in business, the latter in theory

while basically nobody thinks that AI wont have a huge impact on the economy (i.e. everyone agreeing with Altman), Yudkowsky has yet to be proven wrong in his statement that ours is the time of failed AI alignemnt. I have yet to discover a practical solution the alignment problem and I more and more believe that he may be right, which would pretty terrible for all of us

... because we can read the papers written by the currently researching scientists?

most of the stuff is open source, online accesible, its not a mystery

I mean the current system still needs consumers

there is nothing 'wrong' with it per se, it is just going to massively enhance the owner capabilities compared to other non owning entities, think a US-Billionare compared to a starving Zebra in the African savanne

No I think you're on to something, I just think its much simpler than that - alignment of AI systems with humans is already difficult (to my knowledge not yet solved), but the much bigger problem is that even we humans are not aligned, so even if we 'solve' the alignment problem (which imo is unsolvable), we still only align the AI systems to their engineers/owners and ignore 99,9% of the rest

I am not smart, but possible AI use for QC:

1. AI could optimize quantum circuits
2. it could help with debugging QC-systems
3. assist with analyzing big data from QC
4. develop QC-specific algos

to my knowledge encryption standards like AES are not yet broken by any computing, only via bruteforece i.e. the math is still holding up

but the crowd within IT-Sec yelling 'quantum computing is killing encryption' is getting louder every day

there is an argument to be made that people dont care so much for perfect information, but rather care about access and presentation

the presentation of info with Google search is horrible compared to Chat-AIs

but its kinda boring

I have yet to find a blockchain solution to be the best fit for a human problem

lets see about the # of parameters ...

its not gonna be popular, but no - even after testing ChatGPT its pretty obvious that its just evolution, not revolution

by evoluting gpt-3 we're not getting to AGI, but thats already well known; i am looking forward to gpt-4 though

I was being sarcastic, I myself work in IT

yeah right, Microsoft totally missed cloud ... or AI ... or VR ... or ... actually, what did Microsoft miss except for mobile?

but isnt most IT only 'value adding' and therefore not essential? i mean you only need ops to keep the lights on, right?

I mean we dont know, true, but let people speculate, its half the fun^^

more like 99%+

yeah but kind of silly, if you know anything about AI systems ...

its viable

not all knowledge workers, but most, yes

scale maxxing, an actual approach nowadays