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Uncle_Baconn t1_j98wqcq wrote

Except if you look back at 2020, their net income was down what, 25%? I bet a whole lot of maintenance got extended during that time, a whole bunch of really experienced people got let go, and ton of work fell behind. Looks like the cause of the crash might be a failed wheel bearing on one of the cars. They have about 6.5 million rail cars (Wikipedia), with at least 8 bearings each, so 52 million bearings. It takes a week to change a wheel, so I imagine a bearing takes that long too. Looks like some rail wheel bearings last 50 years (per Timken bearings), with reconditioning every 10. So that means that every year, 10% get at least reconditioned or 5.2 million bearings should have been serviced that year. Something tells me they fell behind, and this is the result. Maintenance failures aren't instant - they accumulate over time like skipping oil changes in your car. It's fine until it isn't.

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