Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

6thReplacementMonkey t1_jan3xar wrote

It has always been cheaper overall to switch to renewables. The problem was and still is that what will be cheaper and better overall for everyone will not be better for the small handful of people who control the world's oil and who are incredibly wealthy because of it.

27

ajmmsr t1_jap9h3c wrote

Interesting

Do you have evidence of any country that has completely switched over to renewables?

I think southern Australia is pretty close.

All the papers on completely switching to renewables have been rather disappointing. Thinking of Jacobsen.

This proposal should be peer reviewed.

5

DisasterousGiraffe OP t1_jaryg79 wrote

> country that has completely switched over to renewables

In predicting the future of renewable electricity generation it is very important to base our predictions on future renewable prices, not on historic prices, because renewables are getting much cheaper relative to other sources, such as coal, gas and nuclear. Existing installed generating capacity was all purchased at historic prices when renewables were more expensive.

Looking into the future we can see the US is switching to a fully renewable electricity grid. This transition is happening even with current renewable prices. The 2023 planned additions and retirements according to the EIA are

Planned 2023 Capacity New Retirement Change
Solar 29.1 GW 0 +29.1 GW
Batteries 9.4 GW 0 +9.4 GW
Wind 6.0 GW 0 +6.0 GW
Nuclear 2.2 GW 0 +2.2 GW
Natural Gas 7.5 GW 6.2 GW +1.3 GW
Coal 0 8.9 GW -8.9 GW

A massive increase in solar pv, wind and batteries, and a massive decrease in coal. Not much change in natural gas, but we know from Swanson's law the volume manufacture of solar pv will continue to bring down the price and lead to a spiral of increasing manufacturing capacity and reducing price. Similarly, wind turbines are getting cheaper but at a slower rate. These bite into the profitablility of natural gas electricity generation by making the gas plants into peaker plants, which are approximately twice as expensive per kWh as continuously operating plants. The gas peaker plants are then more expensive than, and have difficulty competing with, grid-connected batteries. Batteries are also increasing in volume and falling in price partly because the auto industry is going all-in with BEVs which already have 14% of the global market in 2022. BEV sales are increasing at a conservative estimate of 30% per year which means they also represent a second significant threat to the oil and gas industry by reducing gasoline consumption - gasoline being the major component of crude oil.

The wikipedia list of countries by renewable electricity generation needs updating from mostly historic 2016 numbers, but may give sources for its country-related renewable electricity data. The changes since 2016 might be similar to Australia which has significantly increased solar and wind generation in the last 10 years. (The chart of total energy consumption by Australian state shows a less optimistic picture of the transition from fossil fuels - the need to electrify more of the world's energy usage.)

3

ajmmsr t1_javjq2b wrote

Speaking to the future one could also argue that there will be fusion someday and because of its energy density it will be economically much cheaper than any other form of power generation.

Helion Energy is already 95% net electric and their upcoming 7th generation reactor should be slightly net positive, if all goes well in 2024 then commercialization will proceed. They have estimated they could initially produce 20 50W reactors a year.

Exciting times

2

SandAndAlum t1_japlf1v wrote

Uruguay, Brazil (including one of their grids serving a largerpopulation than france being majority wind), and a fewother smaller nations.

2

VincentGrinn t1_jaqbzg9 wrote

south australia is somewhere around 15-25% renewables from what i can see

iceland is 25% geothermal 75% hydro

paraguay is 99.8% hydro and 0.2% biofuel which is honestly incredible, they use like 3x as much power as iceland

also apparently albania and the DRC are 100% hydro but that seems odd

2

ajmmsr t1_jaqt5nq wrote

Interesting, I wonder if they have always been like that or made the switch

1

Alpha3031 t1_jb01px1 wrote

> south australia is somewhere around 15-25% renewables from what i can see

More like 70% (slightly under that), source. 25% (well, 29% as of 2021) is closer to the figure for the whole of Australia.

1

Scoobz1961 t1_jar2o50 wrote

Yeah, no, stop spreading your pseudo conspiracy theories. People like you focus solely on the ecology of the renewables, not the economy and more importantly the power engineering. And make no mistake, this is an issue of power engineering, not ecology.

The problem was, is and for a long time will continue being the transmission and storage of electricity. The price of generation is an issue, but in the opposite direction than you would expect. Low electricity prices are harmful for the grid at the moment as conventional "dirty" powerplants are being closed due to not being economically viable. However we need these powerplants for now to stabilize the grid.

But people who only care about renewable energy dont talk about that. Not only because it goes against their claims, but also because they simply dont know or care about that.

2

6thReplacementMonkey t1_jargw2e wrote

> Yeah, no, stop spreading your pseudo conspiracy theories.

It's not a theory, it's documented fact.

> People like you focus solely on the ecology of the renewables, not the economy and more importantly the power engineering.

Tell me more about "people like me" and especially how you know this based on a two-sentence comment on reddit.

> And make no mistake, this is an issue of power engineering, not ecology.

Why would it not be an issue of both? And why wouldn't it include economic factors, public health, public convenience, transportation networks, defense, geopolitics, etc? Why is it just a single issue that you decided is different from the single issue you wrongly assumed that I was focusing on?

> The problem was, is and for a long time will continue being the transmission and storage of electricity.

That's (one of) the engineering problems, yes. There are other problems too.

> The price of generation is an issue, but in the opposite direction than you would expect. Low electricity prices are harmful for the grid at the moment as conventional "dirty" powerplants are being closed due to not being economically viable. However we need these powerplants for now to stabilize the grid.

That's a resource allocation problem.

> But people who only care about renewable energy dont talk about that. Not only because it goes against their claims, but also because they simply dont know or care about that.

Lots more assumptions that are also incorrect.

Anyway, here's the deal: I said "cheaper overall." Draw a big box around the whole problem. Government problems, transportation, engineering, everything. Ask the question: what costs more? Switching to renewables, or not switching? The answer is not switching. The economic costs due to what you are hand-waving away as "ecology" are going to be orders of magnitude greater than all the engineering problems you are fixated on - and we're going to still have to solve those engineering problems, as well as solve a whole bunch of new ones.

This has been true the whole time. It has been true since we first started using fire to lift water. The only thing that has changed over time is our awareness. We couldn't work to solve the problem more efficiently until we understood it. We first started understanding it more than one hundred years ago, and became able to do something about it in the last few decades. Oil companies and those who profit the most from them intentionally worked to reduce the public understanding of the problems specifically because solving them would cause them to be less rich. Not poor - just less rich.

Call that a pseudo conspiracy theory if you want, but it's documented. They did it on purpose.

2

Scoobz1961 t1_jarkl35 wrote

>Tell me more about "people like me" and especially how you know this based on a two-sentence comment on reddit.

You are making it sound like I am projecting things onto you instead of stating the obvious fact that you dont care about the economic or power engineering factor. How do I know that? Because you ignored both in your post.

>Why would it not be an issue of both?

Because the way we generate, transmit and store power is literally what power engineering is. The main pillars of power engineering industry has been tasked by the state to ensure the maintenance, development and the stability of the grid. If the grid fails and people die, its their head, not any other departments.

>That's (one of) the engineering problems, yes. There are other problems too.

You just destroyed your previous post here. You went from "its the fault of big corporations" to "oh yeah, there are some engineering issues that prevent it too".

>That's a resource allocation problem.

The economy is resource allocation problem, yes. A very huge obstacle.

>Lots more assumptions that are also incorrect.

I met so many people that share their opinion on renewable energy without knowing anything about power engineering. You among them. I am not assuming. I am certain. You dont know anything about power engineering, if you did you would consider basic engineering challenges and restrictions. And you dont care. If you did, you would learn the basics.

>Draw a big box around the whole problem. Government problems, transportation, engineering, everything. Ask the question: what costs more? Switching to renewables, or not switching? The answer is not switching. The economic costs due to what you are hand-waving away as "ecology" are going to be orders of magnitude greater than all the engineering problems you are fixated on - and we're going to still have to solve those engineering problems, as well as solve a whole bunch of new ones.

No, that is not the answer. You have been fed propaganda from people that are just like you. People who ignore partial problems and make assumptions to make the math look like its works out in favor of renewables. However the main problem is that is not even the question.

Also let me specifically point out your attitude of "there will be problems, but other people can figure those out". This is the problem. The people you want to figure those out are constantly telling you its not viable, but you dont care about that either.

>This has been true the whole time...

That just dumb. But lets focus on the conspiracy theory. You know who likes money? Everybody. If renewable energy were profitable, the people who own oil companies would invest in them. They dont care about oil, the planet or anything. Its about profit.

This is exactly what happened in my country. My government gave solar energy large subsidy. The math was that if few take advantage of that, it wont matter and we will get more renewable sources. For few years nothing happened. Then huge amount of solar powerplants were build in just two years before the state was able to change the subsidy plan. Many of those that owned dirty powerplants went for it. It was free money if you had the capital.

0

6thReplacementMonkey t1_jarnmlj wrote

Amazing how much you can infer from what's not there, while ignoring what is there.

1

Scoobz1961 t1_jartdul wrote

Thats because nothing is there. You have no idea about how any of this work.

I am absolutely certain that you have a field where you are very knowledgeable and immediately see though BS. But in this case you are the BS in power engineering.

0

6thReplacementMonkey t1_jas630m wrote

Mm hmm. What was the BS again?

1

Scoobz1961 t1_jasah16 wrote

Everything you claimed about power engineering industry. Most importantly that its cheaper to go renewable and that the reason why we dont is because a conspiracy of presumably oil industry.

The cost to force renewables is astronomical and the reason why we dont go full renewable is because the power engineering industry is not even remotely ready and its economically unviable.

1

6thReplacementMonkey t1_jaun26f wrote

Cheaper overall, as in "big picture," including environmental, political, social, health, etc. As I said, and as you apparently missed.

> The cost to force renewables is astronomical

Yes, it is. And the cost of not doing so is even more astronomical.

> and its economically unviable.

Only if you don't look at the big picture. Which you don't.

1

Scoobz1961 t1_jav6owg wrote

>As I said, and as you apparently missed.

You didnt say.

>And the cost of not doing so is even more astronomical.

You arent wrong, but its such a childishly naive thing to say. You are pretending the world is united in shared vision and shared responsibility. Power engineering is extremely fractured.

Let me give you the basic problem. The power generation is a private sector. Corporation that build power plants do so for profit. They dont care about earth, health, politics and whatnot. How exactly do you plan on getting them to lose money on their investment? Same thing apply to commercial batteries that we would have to build tons to support renewable power plants. To stress my point further. You are not paying for power plants right now and you dont get a say.

To look at the "big picture" as you say, you had to take a few steps back and your head ended up in clouds. Let me try it. Crime cost us a lot. All the damages, the cost of justice system and police. And above all, the priceless cost of lives. But I think I have a solution. How about we all just stop committing crimes. Wow, that was easy. And its absolutely free. Hurray for the big picture!

1

6thReplacementMonkey t1_jay859e wrote

Well you convinced me! I humbly apologize for being so very wrong about everything. Thanks for correcting me, sir!

1

Scoobz1961 t1_jb00do0 wrote

I think I actually did. I applaud your idealistic passion, but its met with cold chaotic reality of our society. We could go 100% renewable in a decade or two. There is no doubt about that. Just like we could end wars forever. We just dont have the motivation to do so. Its not just few people. Its all of us.

What we can do and what we are doing is using resources we have available to make the transition possible bit by bit. The renewables are going to win, its almost inevitable. But we have to make sure we are ready for it. An example of what we are doing to rely less on the dirty power plants is we share them with other countries. We are maximizing the utility of those remaining power plants. This is happening right now.

1

Ok_Hope_8507 t1_jaofv9j wrote

So you're suggesting a global conspiracy to slowly produce renewables?

1

6thReplacementMonkey t1_jaorhde wrote

No, I'm suggesting a semi-global organized effort to delay or sabotage anything that leads to less reliance on fossil fuels. Semi-global in the sense that the people involved are from many different countries, not in the sense that everyone is in on it. It's probably the governments/royal families of a few petro-states (Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc), along with the people who own the big oil and coal companies, along with people who are heavily invested in those companies. It's not a conspiracy in the "secret criminal plot" sense, and more like an alignment along common interests that leads to some illegal behavior and a lot of unethical/anti-free-market/imperialist behavior. It's also not a conspiracy in the "nobody knows but us" sense, because some of the groups involved are pretty open about a lot of it (e.g. Koch Industries and the Heritage Foundation).

5

Radulescu1999 t1_jaq4k6a wrote

>It has always been cheaper overall to switch to renewables.

If that was true, China would already be 100% renewable. They are not.

2

6thReplacementMonkey t1_jarht9p wrote

Think bigger picture. If you can externalize the costs of the ecological damage we are doing, the public health costs, the costs of wars to control resources, etc., then it looks cheaper to use them.

If you include all of the true costs, for everyone, then it would have been much, much cheaper to move to renewables as quickly as possible decades ago.

That's the fundamental problem - the negative effects can always be pushed off onto someone else, somewhere else, until suddenly they can't anymore. It leads to people making decisions that are good for them now, but are worse for everyone, later.

1

Radulescu1999 t1_jarya84 wrote

Renewables wouldn’t have worked decades ago. Battery capacity was terrible, and wind and solar was extremely inefficient.

Though I agree that we still should have invested more into renewables (the US), an overall switch to renewables wouldn’t have been possible (as in 100%).

Though if we invested more into nuclear, hydropower, and geothermal (for specific areas), and invested in solar/wind (for their development/research), that would have been most ideal.

1

6thReplacementMonkey t1_jas5hs2 wrote

> Renewables wouldn’t have worked decades ago. Battery capacity was terrible, and wind and solar was extremely inefficient.

Yes they would have. It would have cost more to implement them without more R&D, but that wasn't the only choice. We could have invested heavily in R&D and gotten there much sooner. Despite the extra cost, it would still have been cheaper overall.

The thing people seem to not be getting from my posts is "overall." Big Picture. Total spend. Everything accounted for.

If you draw a circle around a piece of it, then yes, you can argue about costs. That's exactly why they do it.

1

VincentGrinn t1_jaqbf65 wrote

not exactly hard to be cheaper than fossil fuels, i mean the global fossil fuel industry is subsidized 16 billion dollars PER DAY, and is still more expensive than renewables

on an entirely unrelated note the global fossil fuel industry makes a profit of 6 billion dollars per day, way to go guys

−1

6thReplacementMonkey t1_jarhem9 wrote

This is true, but in the past it was cheaper to produce electric energy from fossil fuels. I'm talking about overall costs, including economic damage from climate change, the wars that are fought over scarce resources, wars that will be fought over scarcer resources, costs due to mass migration, collapse of ecosystems, etc. If you look at the big picture, it's going to be incredibly, unbelievably expensive to deal with our long term dependence on fossil fuels. But it's all externalized costs that someone else will have to pay in the future, until that someone is us, now.

1

VincentGrinn t1_jat8xlr wrote

oh geez when you include that stuff it just becomes obscenely cheaper, now days its already cheaper just in a direct cost standpoint to use renewables

even without long term damage fossil fuels currently account for 20% of all deaths world wide(both directly and indirectly)

1