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ktElwood t1_je49rcv wrote

Well, nuclear fusion is always 20 years in the future :D

Extraplanetary colonies are "cool" but...really useless.

Voyager probes are our deep space vessels - cosmic radiation will BBQ humans in space.

If you could regenerate organs, prolong human life substancially, society would collapse. Imagine billionaires being biologicly 25 for 250 years...

My personal tinfoil-hat-theory is that who ever defeats aging in humans, will be transported to a remote island and never be seen again.

We have desalination, we just use too much water.

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ItsAConspiracy t1_je4vg6o wrote

Imagine everyone living for 250 years. Personally I'm not willing to sacrifice an extra 150 years of life just to kill a few billionaires.

Society would not collapse. Anti-aging could actually save us from an upcoming demographic crash. As populations urbanize, birth rates go down, and most advanced nations are way below replacement rates.

Meanwhile, between cheap solar, probably fusion (see my other reply), and cultured food production, our per-capita impact on the planet could well shrink by a lot over the next fifty years.

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ItsAConspiracy t1_je4u6q7 wrote

At this point fusion is probably more like ten years in the future.

Fusion progressed exponentially from 1970 to 2000, at a faster pace than Moore's Law. Then 35 nations threw almost all their fusion money at ITER, a giant reactor in France that won't actually run before 2027, and hopes to attempt fusion in 2035.

But technology moved on. We have new superconductors that let us build a reactor like ITER but ten times smaller, and several companies are doing it. We have supercomputers that are way better at plasma simulations, letting us design new types of fusion reactors that are smaller and cheaper. Lasers have advanced exponentially too; the NIF project technically got net power from fusion last year, but used giant lasers that are less than 1% efficient; we have lasers now that can do the same thing, but they fit in a small room, are over 20% efficient, and can fire once a second instead of twice a day. We have way better power electronics.

Startup companies are taking advantage of all of this. Zap Energy is attempting net power this year, CFS in 2025, General Fusion in 2026, and Helion is attempting overall net electricity in 2024 with a mostly-aneutronic fuel.

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WildGrem7 t1_je7p7mu wrote

If you think we will have viable working fusion for the masses in 10 years, you’re delusional. They haven’t even broken Q>1 yet and to make it vaiable the need far far greater than that and far more frequent than the 1 or so reactions a day they’ve been able to achieve. Not to downplay the advancements that we have had in the last decade - they are huge - but the cost of getting that Q up to the needed 5-10 will be astronomical then actually getting reactors up and running will take a lot least a decade alone if you compare them to current nuclear reactors from scratch to energy production. You’re looking at…………30 years. Minimum. Lmao.

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ItsAConspiracy t1_je81cc9 wrote

You talk like there's only one fusion project. Plenty of projects do a lot more than one shot a day. Helion does way more.

Get up to speed on what's actually happening in the field before you write it off so confidently.

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WildGrem7 t1_je839rt wrote

Would love some sources of anything over Q>1

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