Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

DM_me_ur_tacos t1_irx8uli wrote

These are very reasonable points of contention.

It would indeed be interesting to include the cost of sufficient battery storage with PV/wind so that they can deliver closer to base load. But fast forward a decade and I suspect that the combination of variable pricing (market mechanism woo!) and people owning beefy EV batteries will shape demand to match variations in supply. Some utility scale smoothing will also help.

My impression is that the lackluster grid infrastructure and PV manufacturing in the US are strategic blunders that should and will be remedied. Even if utility power generation weren't to change, the transition to EVs and proliferation of residential solar are going to necessitate a modern grid. In my opinion, invoking the grid as a reason to hold back on renewables is like saying that cars aren't useful because we can't be bothered to pave our roads, so let's stick with horse buggies.

Also, something that I suspect isn't in the lazard study is that PV panels are increasingly recyclable. This is in big contrast to fuel supplies from a shady sources that are single use (uranium, petro). The scarce materials in PVs are catalysts that can and should be recovered and reused.

Edit: I'm biased towards renewables, but not a nuclear alarmist

2

bmac251 t1_irxbg2u wrote

Thanks for your insightful and level headed response. Like I said, I think the future is brighter with a combination of the renewables you prefer and nuclear I prefer. We can both agree fossil fuels should be phased out.

I’m inclined to agree with you about the future of battery storage will fundamentally change how renewables are marketed across the country and world. I only see their adoption increasing (and even more so as battery technology develops).

My point to the grid, and even more so US PV manufacturing, wasn’t meant to imply we shouldn’t be changing to these forms of energy. We will need a more modern grid one way or the other and there’s no doubt solar and wind will become bigger and bigger parts of this. We shouldn’t discount them now because of how things are. Rather, the point I was trying to make was that many studies I see that portray wind and solar as the future because of their “green-ness” or “cost competitiveness” with other forms of energy aren’t really apples to apples comparisons. I think this is usually due to the fact that accounting for all the little factors that go into building an entire nations energy supply is - unsurprisingly - a hugely difficult undertaking (I also try not to infer bad motives on people when a lack of understanding could also explain the result). My gripe is that I often see solar and wind studies like the one you listed used to promote policy when the study isn’t showing many of the important downsides. Oil and gas do the same thing when they always ignore favorable subsidies and accounting policies they use so as to skew their cost effectiveness. Again, I’m biased here, but I don’t see that same benefit of the doubt given to nuclear and often it seems like that’s due to some pathological fear of nuclear.

As for recycling PV, this is huge! I’m very happy to see this and I want to read up on it. I don’t think many people understand this is possible with solar or nuclear for that matter but I hope to spread the word on this.

3

FrozenIceman t1_irxyi4y wrote

You don't think Solar Panels and Lithium come from Shady sources in China?

1

DM_me_ur_tacos t1_iry74xz wrote

Like I said, it was a strategic blunder to allow China to get the headstart on PV manufacturing. But if their panels are cost effective it's not like energy investors are going to abort projects because they are Chinese.

In terms if lithium, some quick googling suggests that Chile and Australia have reserves and production that dwarf China's. So while I wouldn't want to depend entirely on Chinese lithium, that doesn't seem to be a problem or a reason to abandon renewables

1

FrozenIceman t1_iry7l53 wrote

I am not suggesting abandoning renewables.

I am suggesting that sketchy or immoral production chains are so common to every day life that it shouldn't even be considered.

But if you are considering changing production chains, it is easy enough to reopen Uranium mines around the globe or even more fun separate the Uranium in Desalination plants (It is like 300 tons of Uranium can be separated per year from our existing desalination plans).

1