nezeta t1_it3czrp wrote
Moore's law has been claimed to be "end" for the decade. It's actually becoming the same myth as "fossil fuels will run out".
In the latest process (3nm) the thinnest pitch is 22nm, so we'll still see several more generations from TSMC, Intel and Samsung.
Jaohni t1_it3jhvp wrote
Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't "nm" as a naming scheme been kind of misleading since 157nm immersion lithography failed?
Like, before then, nanometer was a measure of distance between transistors, and a smaller difference meant a faster calculation that also used less energy, and could be made cheaper because the transistors would require less silicon for the same calculation.
But as finfet started coming onto the scene, you could essentially raise the transistor in a third dimension, which adjusted the performance profile of that transistor, allowing you to gain "effective nanometer reduction", so things like TSMC 16nm and onward weren't really "nanometer" anymore, but an essentially abstract number that indicated roughly the performance compared to previous generations, which is also why intel 10, for instance, is roughly as dense, in terms of literal nanometers, as TSMC 6/7, but doesn't necessarily perform the same in all instances.
IMO Moore's Law, as originally described is dead (a doubling of transistors, and performance every 8 months), but the "Layman's Moore's Law", that "Computation will advance geometrically and we'll be able to acquire higher levels of performance for the same money", is still well alive.
There's plenty of interesting and technically challenging ways to improve performance, such as 3d stacking (IBM, AMD), disaggregation (AMD, Apple), heterogenous compute (Arm, Intel) and so on, without even going into the upcoming AI accelerators that will take advantage of improved multi-threading / parallel compute to shore up on our lack of raw single threaded improvements we've seen as of late, so as a tech enthusiast I'm absolutely hyped for upcoming products, but I don't quite think that it's quite right to say that Moore's Law is still alive as it was originally used.
danielv123 t1_it4qmd1 wrote
Yes, which is why the nodes now have other names but are colloquially grouped by nm. Tsmc for example have N4 which is just a variant of their 5nm process. They also have different suffixes which run slightly different settings on the same machines to optimize for clocks, power etc.
JehovasFinesse t1_it6njlu wrote
I’ve learned more in this comment than I probably would in a lecture
Immortal_Tuttle t1_it3igg1 wrote
We don't really can go much lower than that. Quantum tunnelling is a real issue at that size. However we still can go up with the layer count. However then we have the issues with cooling. So what is relatively easy with memory it's a big problem with computing.
Dyz_blade t1_it3h56c wrote
There’s also quantum computing processors which just took a step neared to mass production with a high rate of efficiency
old_adage t1_it3g648 wrote
Moore's law has ended for the definition of "computer power per dollar": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS#Cost_of_computing
I work at a large service provider. Before 2016ish, compute costs were largely irrelevant since each hardware generation would make any investment in software or hardware optimization in the previous generation moot - resource consumption and compute costs were both increasing exponentially.
This is no longer the case: now we have major investments in software and workload-specific hardware to keep costs linear while handling exponential resource consumption.
djoncho t1_it6yrtx wrote
Sorry to be bearer of bad news but fossil fuels are finite and we aren't producing more. So they will run out if we keep using them. That's a weird use of the word myth at the very least.
On the other hand, Moore's law may or may not keep holding depending on technological advances
Zustrom t1_it78zsu wrote
I think they might have meant the alarmists meaning of fossil fuels running out as if there's only a few years worth left kinda thing.
refusered t1_it5kfro wrote
Moore’s law lol
Moore predicted exactly what’s happening so technically it’s still Moore’s law yeah
Mastasmoker t1_it7ou6h wrote
If you believe fossil fuels will never run out I got some news for you. There's nothing replacing them. It took the Earth millions of years to create what we have
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