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Feuerphoenix t1_ivfewhe wrote

Reply to comment by Slightlydifficult in Humanoid robots could generate $154 billion in revenue over next 15 years, Goldman Sachs reports by Gari_305

Feasible? This robot is so far from being feasible as an Iron bar is from becoming a carframe. We did not see any active interactions on stage, no walking, nothing advanced at all. Boston dynamics is a lot more advanced in that regard. Even the show case videos are heavily edited. Sorry I don‘t see this as being close, and Musk himself is…let‘s say very liberal with self set deadlines. I am willing to wait until the next presentation, but as of right now, what was shown is neither special, nor advanced or intelligent.

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Slightlydifficult t1_ivfi97j wrote

I have to disagree! The robot we saw was slapped together in less than a year, that’s massive progress already! But the construction of the robot isn’t why I think it’s feasible, it’s the approach.

For a long time we’ve made very specific robots with very specific tasks. They cost a fortune but they do their job well. Tesla is going a different direction and saying “why make a specific robot when we can make a general one?” Optimus wouldn’t even require changes to the factory floor because it’s designed to mimic human movements. They’ll be able to mass produce it, equipment it with software that allows it to visualize its environment, and train it to do a wide array of human tasks.

I do like the comparison of an iron bar to a car frame because it’s a long ways off still but the bones are there and the approach seems right to me. Boston Dynamics knows how to make a robot but they don’t know how to make a robot that understands and interacts with its environment. That is going to be absolutely essential for any sort of mass production of humanoid robots.

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BMW_wulfi t1_ivfkekj wrote

When they fix everyone’s (tesla owners) auto wipers, I’ll believe you. Until then, you’re just spouting an unfounded opinion.

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Slightlydifficult t1_ivfvtk6 wrote

They are fixed on FSD beta, same as the auto headlights. I imagine you’ll see that roll out when they make everything single stack, I suspect that will be the Christmas update but who knows.

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fwubglubbel t1_ivg5wti wrote

You should look up a robot named Baxter.

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Slightlydifficult t1_ivg7r4o wrote

I remember Baxter! I haven’t seen anything on that in years, I’ll have to see what that company is up to because Baxter is exactly the same idea as Optimus. I’m curious if they’ve already rolled out to manufacturers. I first remember hearing about Baxter like ten years ago, I’m sure they made plenty of improvements since I last saw it. They would actually have a massive lead time over Tesla, if they have the manufacturing process nailed down and could partner with a group like nvidia for AI, they could likely capture a big portion of that market years before Tesla has anything ready.

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alphaxion t1_ivh5fst wrote

The robot they showcased was worse than tech from 15 years ago. Asimo was worlds ahead of what they had people awkwardly and manually walk onto the stage. It looked less advanced than an A100 audio-animatronic found in Disney rides (the model that was running the Wicked Witch in the Great Movie Ride), never mind the latest A1000 model seen here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qteMlMAaNM

A generalised robot will be even more expensive than a specialised one, because it is orders of magnitude more complex to do the things you're talking about.

Without putting huge amounts of R&D money into the product and a team of hundreds of engineers, I fully doubt they'll have anything by 2030 that is close to what Boston Dynamics have today.

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Slightlydifficult t1_ivhafe7 wrote

Asimo was crazy for it’s time, it’s weird to think how long ago that was. The big difference is that asimo ran on preprogrammed maps while Tesla’s proposed bot will not need them. Asimo had some similar things with object detection but it was nowhere near as advanced as the occupancy network Tesla uses.

Generalized equipment is almost always cheaper to produce at scale. It’s certainly cheaper with a product like Optimus where the main selling point is the software. You don’t need multiple teams focusing on several different product lines. Maintenance is simplified and issues become much easier to identify and fix.

I think you should also consider that Optimus is running off of the same software as Tesla’s vehicles. They’ve already poured excessive amounts of money into R&D. They definitely need to have a crack team of engineers; like you’ve already noted, the actuation needs work. But even still, a functioning prototype put together in less than a year is absolutely wild for this level of robotics.

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alphaxion t1_ivhm5md wrote

You're making a hell of a lot of assumptions, there. No-one has mass-produced any humanoid robot in decades of developing them.

There's also the major hurdle of how to power them. How long would a humanoid robot last on a charge? Will they be able to accomplish their tasks in the physical space they're looking to be operated within on that charge? Will the environment even be able to support something with the inevitably high weight they'll have?

The world we operate within is immensely complex, complete with people in it who are adversarial rather than compliant. The software for roads is proving a massive stumbling block already and that's semi-controlled. Hell, people have been discovering all sorts of issues with how those systems are sensing the world when they are adversarial to it, such as projecting different speed limits onto signs to trick the AI.
Free roaming in areas with squishy humans that don't have any of the safety features that modern cars have? I worry about our seeing the elderly crushed to death as someone with dementia freaks out in its company for the first time and knocks it over. Or where it cannot react in a quick enough time to the changing landscape of an industrial workplace and results in injury for the people still working there.

You're talking about this robot as if they've already got the solutions to fundamental aspects of both its design and its manufacturing sorted. It's not even a functioning prototype - it can't even walk unassisted. I'd also be extremely wary of claims made by Musk, the man who faked solar roof tiles for a demonstration.

I doubt a generalised (in function, that doesn't mean you can bolt together off the shelf components to manufacture it) humanoid robot will even be on the market by 2030. It's such a massively difficult task to accomplish, it takes humans near enough two decades before we consider them to be adults, and that's with millions of years of evolution behind us.

2050? That might be closer to the real timeframe when we can trust allowing these robots to walk amongst us.

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