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bpknyc t1_ivff5pf wrote

Yeah. Internet rando claims Tesla is the only feasible tech when the said Tesla tech are just bunch of vague claims with no significant substance makes sense

Tesla just laid off 200 Autopilot engineers earlier this year, and shifted another 50 to review Twitter code

Meanwhile, Ford/VW just dissolved their autonomous car venture Argo.AI because they didn't see a viable way to commercialize the tech in the near future.

All the signs point to the simple truth, that autonomous cars are still a long ways away, as well as "AI".

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Slightlydifficult t1_ivfhj8r wrote

I completely agree that level 5 autonomy (and even level 4 most likely) are still a long ways off but level 3 is right around the corner. If they geofenced the current FSD Beta to avoid unprotected turns and thin roads, it would be 99% of the way there. The layoffs you’re referencing were actually a very positive sign that Tesla has made major advancements; the majority of those laid off were part of the data labeling team and Tesla was able to implement an autolabeling system that did their job with AI. I am very interested in the impact that moving 50 AP engineers to Twitter is going to have. It seems like an insanely dumb move to me but I have no idea what’s going on behind the scenes.

I hope autonomous vehicles are closer than you think! But technology rarely follows a linear path, all we can do is speculate and dream.

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Test19s t1_ivfsot8 wrote

How likely is it that L4 either never rolls out within anyone’s lifetimes or is simply impossible to produce with inorganic computer chips?

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Slightlydifficult t1_ivfyly4 wrote

That’s a really good question! It’s super hard to predict technology because advancements are rarely linear. We might find that the jump from 3 to 4 is relatively simple or maybe it takes decades of work before we can do it! I personally think that it’s likely to come very quickly, maybe even the next ten years.

Surprisingly, it doesn’t take a supercomputer to drive a car, I think the biggest limitation is not the chips but the sensors. For example, radar provides a good view of the world but stops working in rain or fog. Cameras are great until it hits inclement weather. LiDAR makes perfect 3d maps but it’s performance suffers at night or in cloudy weather.

Most companies are combining multiple sensors to combat their weaknesses but Tesla seems committed to using only cameras. I don’t know if multiple sensors will be required or if Tesla is right in trying to copy the way humans drive. So far, Tesla seems to have a lead but they’ve also spent more time working in this than anyone else. We’ll see if the camera only approach is enough for level 4, I’m a little skeptical.

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Test19s t1_ivg2i5k wrote

I’m experiencing some pretty crazy stuff by decade’s end even if we don’t see mass L4 deployment. If radar and LiDAR become cheap enough we could see it even sooner. (I don’t see robotaxis working outside of major cities in certain countries bc a lot of people like their own cars)

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Slightlydifficult t1_ivg6jfl wrote

It’s definitely a really cool time to be alive!

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Test19s t1_ivgep7e wrote

If it wasn’t for all the other bullshit that came with being the decade that first built Optimus Prime.

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bpknyc t1_ivfjcw3 wrote

Tesla can't even have full autonomous cars in a closed loop (Vegas loop) and requires human in the driver seat at all time ready to take over.

You realize that airport shuttles are fully autonomous, and doesn't require operators, right? He'll even Vegas monorail loop is driverless.

If Elon can't figure out 100% autonomous in a closed system when even Disney can put make their new star wars ride 100% autonomous in closed loop, you can know how far even level 3 is from viability.

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Slightlydifficult t1_ivfkkqa wrote

You would be 100% correct if Tesla was attempting autonomous driving in the traditional way with mapping and specific route planning. But Tesla is not doing that at all, they actually have decreased the vehicles confidence in basic map data over the last few updates because they want the vehicle to process what it sees, not what it expects. This is why when they addressed Chuck Cook’s left turn it vastly improved unprotected turns for everyone, not just that one single instance. For that same reason, a closed loop isn’t a great way to measure the vehicle’s performance because they’re not training it for any specific routes. It makes their progress look much slower but in the end it will be able to adapt to changing road conditions, construction, new roads, etc. without needing to be pre-mapped. That said, I don’t think we’ll be seeing level 5 without different camera placement, I’ll be curious to see if HW4 makes that change.

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bpknyc t1_ivfzor8 wrote

Lol you keep slurping up tesla marketing gimmick without any critical thinking.

Have you seen Capchas that ask you to identify motorcycles or traffic lights? Why do you think hundreds of millions of people are being turned into mechanical turks in 2022 for the sake of "account security?".

Capchas can determine if you're a human or a bot by the way a mouse moves within fractions of a second of the pages loading. Been that way since mid 2010s. The reason is because even the latest gen image recognition isn't very good at these things.

Teslas been promising fully autonomous car next year for almost a decade now. Maybe you should try to ask "why would it be different" or at least read the story of the boy who cried wolf

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