you_are_stupid666 t1_izidlvf wrote on December 9, 2022 at 9:23 AM

I couldn’t disagree with you anymore than I currently do. Mimicking behavior and consciously taking action are the same as saying life is equal to not being dead. While the action and function lol the same, the reality is they are complete opposites.

The current “AI” mimics intelligence while possessing none. It does not create anything of value until what was created has been analyzed by a human and then projected onto the world as genuine “AI”.

The singularity is the hardest part by infinity. We approach it asymptoticly and the crossing over is the part that seems forever out of reach.

Your timeline is absurd. Ten years ago we were 6 months away from full self driving cars, because we did most of the necessary work. We got 90-95% finished with the problem. The issue is the last 5-10% is many, many, many orders of magnitude harder than the other part. Staying in between lines, not hitting stuff, stopping at red lights, etc. is most of what we do while driving. Once in a blue moon, though, we blow a tire, hit an ice patch, have to avoid a deer or recognize that an intersections stop light is broken and their are two green lights and the other cars aren’t stopping so I have need to be slamming my breaks right now or I’m gonna die, or myriad other things that can go wrong.

This is where you fully understand the difference between mimicry and intelligence. Humans don’t know what they will need to react to in the future but they have the ability to handle whatever it might be. Computers are no where close to this. They have no ability to critically analyze a situation they haven’t seen before. They have no intelligence, they have a database of previous experiences that they then apply some sort of values to possible outcomes and make binary decisions along dynamic paths but without ever building new paths.

We are decades away from any singularity “event” per se. And we are many decades or more away from some existential species wide crisis over where we belong in the universe….

Not to be rude but imho this is a naive and extremely unlikely expectation for the near future.

iqdo t1_izivpci wrote on December 9, 2022 at 1:05 PM

> We got 90-95% finished with the problem. The issue is the last 5-10% is many, many, many orders of magnitude harder than the other part.

That's one of the reasons I got out of the webdeveloper freelancer market. Certain people would hunt big projects, do "90%" of them and take most of the time and money when suddenly their cat/relative etc would get sick or worse. The guy who posted the original job would repost the job stating that I have a website that's almost done, I just need a few changes. Those few changes were 95% of the time and skill required for completing the job. Plus the job is extremely competitive these days, with sometimes hundreds of individuals applying for a project.

claravel t1_izit1p8 wrote on December 9, 2022 at 12:40 PM

This is the only sensible thing in this entire thread.

footurist t1_izmeb74 wrote on December 10, 2022 at 4:15 AM

Tbh, picking on the FSD zealots always seemed short-sighted to me as it seems likely that FSD actually requires AGI ( which for some definitions would set off a singularity ).

Also, your pareto take on the progress assessment isn't telling the whole story imo. Not everything requires vertical solving until the end; sometimes exploring the map further gets you a huge leap, which can change the outlook quickly.

That said, I agree current systems really don't look like they're gonna get us our Datas and C3POs, or even Jarvises...

AsuhoChinami t1_j0a9309 wrote on December 15, 2022 at 4:30 AM

Not reading your message, but I skimmed enough to understand that you're dumb as hell and have nothing worth saying.