Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

PorkyPigDid911 OP t1_j6fcdun wrote

Reply to comment by Phobos15 in Scientists lower price of lithium's best competition - flow batteries - by 20%. Makes the battery effectively equal to or cheaper than lithium ion when spread over 30 years (flow battery lifetimes are effectively infinite with light repowering efforts). by PorkyPigDid911

Didn't say breakeven price was 30 years, said that compared to lithium ion the price starts to make sense in that time frame. Breakeven price is much sooner for these assets. 7% IRR minimum pretty much requirement for investment.

6

Phobos15 t1_j6iya5s wrote

That time frame makes no sense. This demonstrates that the technology is not close to commercialization.

If people won't invest in the sure returns of nuclear, why would they invest in a new unproven technology with less of a chance of a return than nuclear?

The feds even give out loan guarantees for nuclear projects, which you won't get for this new tech.

1

PorkyPigDid911 OP t1_j6iytur wrote

I don't think you're grasping this time frame discussion at all.

1

Phobos15 t1_j6k7gk0 wrote

I am. The claim that this has a 30 year break even with lithium batteries means it loses money and is a terrible investment. Break even is not a profit. You profit based on how much longer it lasts after 30 years. You also assume efficiency doesn't degrade more than they predict too.

The chance that current technology does not improve over the next 10 years is zero. Your 30 year project likely won't make any sense to even turn on in a few years. You'll never get close to that 30 year time frame because more efficient options will exist over time or these things will drop in cost and the old ones won't get anywhere near the return that they need.

1