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farticustheelder t1_j43oa4i wrote

Reply to comment by Surur in From 300 GW to 3,000 GW per year – a utopia? by manual_tranny

Different tech but same pattern. Plugins hit 0.3% of the global light vehicle market in 2013, they hit 3% in 2019. That's an order of magnitude growth in 6 years. In 2022 they hit 30%, another order of magnitude in just 3 years. And yet most articles talk about EVs hitting 50% in 2035!

US grid solar capacity is at 77 GW and FERC reports another 72 GW are being added in the next year to 18 months, with another 130 GW for the following 18 months. That puts solar at 25% of the US grid capacity by the end of 2026

The EU restarted its solar deployments to avoid Russian energy. And China has been solar's poster child for years.

I expect that the people who own all the assets that are soon to be stranded are in a state of denial and since they control the media people are being mislead.

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Poly_and_RA t1_j45zmb2 wrote

Yepp. People underestimate exponential growth. It took only 11 years here in Norway for electric cars to go from 1% and to 80% of new cars sold. (2011-2022) -- that's the equivalent of +49% per year for over a decade.

Peoples reaction to it tends to be like this:

  • 0.5%: Nobody is buying EVs!
  • 0.75%: Nobody is buying EVs!
  • 1.2%: Nobody is buying EVs!
  • 1.8%: Nobody is buying EVs!
  • 2.6%: Nobody is buying EVs!
  • 3.8%: Nobody is buying EVs!
  • 5.8%: EVs are only suitable for a tiny set of niche applications!
  • 8.7%: EVs are only suitable for a tiny set of niche applications!
  • 13%: Most people will never be well-served by an EV!
  • 20%: Most people will never be well-served by an EV!
  • 30%: An EV can perhaps work as car number 2 for some households
  • 45%: An EV can perhaps work as car number 2 for some households
  • 80%: WOOAAA What just happened? Nobody could've foreseen this!!!! Where did all these EVs *suddenly* and *completely unexpectedly* come from??????

It appears to most people that all the growth came in the last 2-3 years and very suddenly. That's not true. Anyone who was ACTUALLY paying attention would've seen that we've had in the viscinity of 50% year-over-year growth for well over a decade, and anyone who knows basic math knows that if that trend stays, the thing takes over the world completely faster than most people anticipate.

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pieter1234569 t1_j4bonx9 wrote

It only works in Norway because the state pretty much pays for the Tesla. It's Cheaper than ANY other car.

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Poly_and_RA t1_j4cy3yg wrote

The state subsidizes EVs with a grand total of ZERO dollars, so I see no justification for claiming that the state pays for it.

EVs are however exempt from the CO2-tax that ICE-cars pay, depending on how much they pollute per kilometer driven, and that is indeed the main reason why Norway is about 5 years ahead of other countries in EV-adoption.

It's nonsense to claim that it only works in Norway because of this though; many other countries have similar market-share trajectories that are merely a few years behind.

That wasn't the point here though, the point was that people who don't understand exponential growth tend to see it as nothing happening for many years, and then SUDDENLY the thing explodes. Even when the reality is, like in the example-numbers I posted here, that there's pretty steady growth throughout.

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pieter1234569 t1_j4cyffz wrote

> EVs are however exempt from the CO2-tax that ICE-cars pay, depending on how much they pollute per kilometer driven, and that is indeed the main reason why Norway is about 5 years ahead of other countries in EV-adoption.

Yes, that's a subsidy that costs a shit ton of money..... Not getting SUBSTANTIAL TAX INCOME is also a subsidy.

> It's nonsense to claim that it only works in Norway because of this though; many other countries have similar market-share trajectories that are merely a few years behind.

It works in every country, but not every country is willing to spend tens of billions on this. At at least 10k per car, that's what it costs....

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carso150 t1_j454gjl wrote

i personally dont believe its soo much media manipulation but more like you dont learn of this things unless you are closely following the trends and people just dont understanding exponential curves and severly understimating technological growth and development, a lot of people seem to extrapolate current technological development and believe that we are still going to be living mostly the same in 2100 just maybe with some robots and better cellphones when the trend is that technology completly shifts and changes almost every decade at this point

also another huge issue is that for decades the growth of renewables have been glacially slow and since people like to extrapolate from their life experiences they expect that the growth will remain glacially slow, sum to that the fact that most news about the insane growth of renewables barely makes a dip (you will hear 100 news about how everything is going "faster than expected" before one about renewable energy growth because that has become the media favorite buzzwords to attract clicks) and because of that most people still believe that "nothing is being done", again i dont believe is outright media manipulation is just that bad news sell

also first time i hear EVs being refered as "plugins"

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farticustheelder t1_j47e4en wrote

plugins is shorthand for BEV + PHEV, with the understanding that PHEV is morphing into BEV. It specifically excludes ICE, hydrogen fuel cells and any 'other' tech.

As to media manipulation take a look at this chart by Auke Hoekstra in the article at: https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/07/12/has-the-international-energy-agency-finally-improved-at-forecasting-solar-growth/

Anyone that incompetent would have been fired after the second prediction. Since they never did that, the lying is intentional.

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