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jaxnmarko t1_j43vdlu wrote

Not until the grid can handle the new demand, and the feet dragging on that is massive.

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sarinGasSmells OP t1_j43w3nz wrote

Solar and stationary storage becoming cheap and virtual power plants. All things that are happening now. I agree though... if these large utilities an oil and gas can't find a way to line their pockets, technologies will be bought and buried.

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perrochon t1_j43y8gf wrote

This cannot be buried. Utilities are moving to renewable and battery already.

It will happen. Look up Tony Seba on YouTube.

The only comment on your statement is "new cars" will be EV. We cannot replace all vehicles, certainly not globally. That will take another 20 years. Planes are a bit harder too.

But new vehicles in most wealthy countries will be predominantly EV by 2030. Coastal/CARB states of the US, including FL and TX, Western Europe, Australia.

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Chonky_Kong t1_j43xf86 wrote

How much oil will be needed to scale EV production though? Where will we get the required metals? How will all those resources be mined and shipped?

I actually think EVs are going to plateau or decline

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sarinGasSmells OP t1_j43yt0m wrote

EVs are the future of all transport it's just a matter of when. Yes, we still need oil for all sorts of things but your insinuation that oil used to scale EV production is more than taking millions of ICE vehicles off the road is silly. Mining enough lithium is a good question though. It takes decades to go from lithium exploration to an actually producing mine. Sodium-ion uses no lithium. Ships will have to use oil still, you're right. Unless they can use nuclear like US nuclear subs have for 50 years.

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Chonky_Kong t1_j44m676 wrote

It's not just lithium. There are several other metals needed. I'm not against EV I'm just a realist. It ain't happening by 2030 imo.

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kmosiman t1_j43xn2u wrote

All depends. In this technological pipe dream demand might be evened out.

If various storage battery options are on the market then charging stations may be able to store electricity to even out the draw on the grid.

Smart grid improvements could allow for flexible pricing (electricity to recharge battery banks would be cheaper at midday when solar is at its peak).

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jaxnmarko t1_j4421u2 wrote

There are promising hydrogen power breakthroughs going on as well that allow safer immediate storage for vehicle use. We've seen what happens when lithium batteries get damaged..... MAJOR fires. The battery pack for the new EV Hummer weighs 2900 pounds all by itself. Vehicle impacts with more mass are more dangerous. Cold weather and batteries don't work well together. There have been many problems with Teslas in the cold, for example. Imagine seeing a guy walking down the road lugging a battery for charging instead of a gas can! Lol

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MaIcoImReynoIds t1_j43vyul wrote

I think it will take longer than that for everything to be electric. You have to consider semi, trains, cargo ships, public transportation in rural areas. I bet it will be 2050.

In 2030 is about the time republican states turn towards ev as California has. Places will have to build more infrastructure for electric vehicles.

The cost for people like me who are stuck with $3,000 vehicles would be a problem then as it is now. I can’t afford to make payments or if an electric vehicle broke down I’d be screwed. I think in 2030 there will be more hybrids being used by people like me and more electric on the road along with their ability to travel farther.

Edit. It’s going to take a long time to replace passenger planes. It takes time to build them and it will take even longer to test them. I bet that will be the last thing converted to electric

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sarinGasSmells OP t1_j43x2i7 wrote

In China the Wuling Mini has been on sale for years. It has 100 mile range and costs $3000. I see $5000 city cars and 300 mile range cars for the current cost of a Nissan Note ($12000). You can imagine how cheap a used Volt or Bolt would be at that point.

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MaIcoImReynoIds t1_j43y7t4 wrote

2030 is about the time the ones that haven’t had a battery change will need one. That will be a problem for low income used car buyers.

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kmosiman t1_j43y3vl wrote

At a certain point it won't matter. CAFE regulations plus the global auto market will be a major factor.

Also consider R&D funding. Manufacturers aren't going to be spending as much on engine technologies so developments will stall out.

I'd love to think that HV's will catch on, but I believe BEV sales equalled HV sales last year.

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MaIcoImReynoIds t1_j441jec wrote

That’s why I brought up politics as best I could. I think that is slowing us down right now. Not only the infrastructure but the fact there’s so much oil money in politics. Both foreign and domestic.

I think we also need a government trade in program for vehicles if we want to speed up the transition to all electric. We are also going to need lower interest loans for low income families. We also need to develop a longer lasting power source for vehicles and plans for large scale disposal of non recyclable parts. There’s a lot to do on a local scale for each country.

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kmosiman t1_j445kvw wrote

I think it will all filter down. Today's new EV us 2030's used car market.

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UberSven t1_j44088k wrote

Substation engineer, here: you're effectively gonna need a substation for every gas station. Charging accomodations everywhere (what if you don't have a garage or driveway?).

The grid is overstressed in it's current state, and has been for a while. So you're going to need to catch it up to where it should be before you build all of those new subs. Adding millions of EVs to that load in a safe, reliable, and sustainable way is not going to happen in 7 years.

Even if we had enough substation, transmission, distribution, and generation engineers to do all of that design work, it's not feasible to think that the legislative steps needed will occur quickly.

Equipment manufacturers would have to drastically increase their production to keep up, which would take time to hire enough people, train them up, work out the kinks, etc. Even at current demand, we are seeing the same supply chain issues that everyone else has (many large transformers can have a 2 year lead-time for delivery), labor shortages, etc...

Also, consider the recent substation attacks that have been in the news. If my clients decide they want additional security (or NERC starts requiring more), my design just got more complicated and the purchasing and construction process is suddenly more of a burden, which drives up cost and slows down the whole process.

Sorry, friendo, I love the optimism, but no way. This industry moves as slowly as any utility, and the changes required are just too massive.

Edit: as for the contribution of solar to the grid, there's a lot more to it. When the sun is out, it's pretty good, but even then you can only get so many watts per square meter. That energy flux is gonna vary greatly by season and location, no former gas station is going to depend on that as a primary source unless they have a big field next door for all the panels they'd need. They are going to be on the grid. And that's where questions about grid inertia come in. I'd recommend you read up on that, it's pretty interesting. Sorry for the long response. I am as pro-renewable as they come, but there is way too much nuance and hoop-jumping for this to be a fast or smooth process

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sarinGasSmells OP t1_j441qvc wrote

You certainly know about the industry and I definitely don't but if solar and storage become cheap, the timeline to generating and sending charge to EVs is just the time it takes to receive delivery of solar array and battery storage. Probably a few shipping containers. No grid required. Getting licensed etc is another story. A specialized company may be able to do it quickly though.

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takecarebrushyohair t1_j43vk7x wrote

I have hopes of being able to convert ICE into full electric. Modern vehicles that is. I know historic/classic cars have no problem with conversion.

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CriminalizeGolf t1_j43xc6t wrote

It's probably always going to be cheaper to buy a new or lightly used budget electric vehicle than it is to convert a 90's+ ICE car to electric.

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takecarebrushyohair t1_j43xjs1 wrote

It's tough to say with current used car prices and crazy markups on new.id day things on that regard will not be getting better.

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rscottyb86 t1_j43x0on wrote

Two things will be required: first, a miraculous discovery that makes batteries much more efficient than they are, and second, an infrastructure for charging and producing more electricity needs to exist. Neither will happen in a 7-year period. Personally I hope we come up with something better than the battery method

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