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sarinGasSmells OP t1_j43w3nz wrote

Reply to comment by jaxnmarko in Vehicles in 2030. My predictions; leave yours in comments. by sarinGasSmells

Solar and stationary storage becoming cheap and virtual power plants. All things that are happening now. I agree though... if these large utilities an oil and gas can't find a way to line their pockets, technologies will be bought and buried.

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perrochon t1_j43y8gf wrote

This cannot be buried. Utilities are moving to renewable and battery already.

It will happen. Look up Tony Seba on YouTube.

The only comment on your statement is "new cars" will be EV. We cannot replace all vehicles, certainly not globally. That will take another 20 years. Planes are a bit harder too.

But new vehicles in most wealthy countries will be predominantly EV by 2030. Coastal/CARB states of the US, including FL and TX, Western Europe, Australia.

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Chonky_Kong t1_j43xf86 wrote

How much oil will be needed to scale EV production though? Where will we get the required metals? How will all those resources be mined and shipped?

I actually think EVs are going to plateau or decline

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sarinGasSmells OP t1_j43yt0m wrote

EVs are the future of all transport it's just a matter of when. Yes, we still need oil for all sorts of things but your insinuation that oil used to scale EV production is more than taking millions of ICE vehicles off the road is silly. Mining enough lithium is a good question though. It takes decades to go from lithium exploration to an actually producing mine. Sodium-ion uses no lithium. Ships will have to use oil still, you're right. Unless they can use nuclear like US nuclear subs have for 50 years.

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Chonky_Kong t1_j44m676 wrote

It's not just lithium. There are several other metals needed. I'm not against EV I'm just a realist. It ain't happening by 2030 imo.

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