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PurpleDancer t1_jdcs27i wrote

Reply to comment by snowswolfxiii in Maine's Energy future by mainething

Thanks. I recognize that this is tricky territory with lots of ifs ands and buts. I'm not really qualified to wade through it and figure out whether any particular method is properly accounting for interests rates, length of power plant service, etc... It requires experts who study this stuff to draw the conclusions. Unfortunately I don't know how to spot who the experts are who have all the knowledge to pull it all together and make sense of it. (For instance the numbers you just cited seem to be about construction costs and not ongoing generation costs)

So I'm using heuristics, like how often I see solar win in the comparisons by various studies, whether I seem to be looking at a source written by the solar/nuclear industry (and promptly discount them because they will be incintivized to use the metric that makes them look best). Another heuristic I use is how much China and India are investing. They are obviously building a massive power system for a developing population, China especially can do darn near whatever it wants without a democratically driven safety bureaucracy. Yet they seem to be investing in solar more than nuclear by a huge margin and that makes sense to me if solar is indeed cheaper over the long haul (though the lack of a rural power grid might be the reason which complicates comparisons to the US which has a complete grid).

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snowswolfxiii t1_jddl4xf wrote

For what it's worth, since you've extrapolated on your initial comment, it has become starkly apparent that you've put more thought into all of this than your original comment suggested.

It is a very tricky and nuanced subject, which only compounds the moment it leaves a vacuum and starts interacting with literally everything else outside of 'power production security'.

While I hear you on not being qualified to draw conclusions; I also find it to be a dangerous slope to leave all of the thinking to those specialized in it. As you mentioned, they have their own biases, agendas, heuristics, and blind spots; and they always seem to have a bit more sway on policy than voters. (This should be a bit of a universal rule, imo.

Lastly, I have my own biases against solar and wind, largely because of the zealotry surrounding them. I'm seeing it dwindle, thankfully, but for a while there was a vast majority of Pro-Greens that would ardently deny S/W's own eco and climate impacts. (Among many other negatives in the background of the industry.)

Lastly, I do think Maintenance, construction, and all surrounding costs could be considered. As well as the spacial costs for recycling/discarding non-salvageable products. (Solar panels, wind blades, nuclear waste, carbon waste, etc etc)

I have more to add, but my break is over, so I'll cut this short. Hopefully as we move forward, we can figure out the best way to approach these issues. Thanks for a great exchange! Peace and prosperity to you.

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