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MoxManiac t1_is6z9e0 wrote

Reply to comment by ripecannon in Maine voters to choose governor amid economic uncertainty and social upheaval by soulc

LePage is unlikely to win.

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ripecannon t1_is6zi20 wrote

Well, according to reddit, maybe.

I have my doubts about your enthusiasm

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MoxManiac t1_is70u1k wrote

  1. She has the incumbent advantage. An incumbent has not lost re-election for governor since 1966.

  2. Roe vs Wade decision is still energizing the democrat side. LePage is not convincing anyone that he wouldn't support restrictions on abortion now that it's possible.

  3. Mills is consistently polling ahead, with post-roe polls giving her a 10+ point advantage. 538 gives her a 93% chance to win.

  4. Sam Hunkler isn't getting any traction at all as a 3rd party candidate, so it's unlikely we'll see a spoiler situation with him.

That said, VOTE.

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ripecannon t1_is71jfz wrote

Thank you for paying more attention then me, and for your insight. I will definitely be voting.

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rdstrmfblynch79 t1_is8ec7g wrote

I agree. Lepage will get the minimum republican voting block which is not going to be more than mills as it is likely less % wise than moody; because

  1. He's way more polarizing than moody, so no one is swinging his way like they may have for moody. No Republican didn't vote moody, but some non-republicans may have. No republican won't vote lepage, but less non-republicans will

  2. Old people that vote lepage have died

  3. Flatlanders working remote from blue states have moved here post covid

And while #3 wasn't enough to vote in fellow flatlander sara gideon, it's probably enough to vote in mills. Not only has there been more time for them to settle, mills and collins are both regarded publicly as more centrist than their opponents

Gonna be shocked if lepage wins

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