Fetterman opened the summer with all the momentum. He won his primary handily. The Dobbs decision to overturn Roe v. Wade became a boon for Democrats overall. And Oz was still dusting himself off from a race so close it required a recount.

Fetterman seemed to appeal to voters as the more authentic candidate in contrast to the television doctor. Oz, however, has run a savvy campaign as evidenced by polls shifting toward him.

After touting the Trump endorsement to get through the primary, he's pitched himself as more of a centrist. He talks often of bringing "balance" to Washington, D.C. And his efforts to make crime a campaign issue and attack Fetterman's authenticity seem to be paying off. (Fetterman's unfavorability has rose from 27% to 44% from June to September. That's still lower than Oz's [51%], but it is a remarkable shift: https://www.goerie.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/04/usa-today-suffolk-poll-in-pa-josh-shapiro-john-fetterman-still-in-the-lead-mastriano-doctor-oz/69530122007/ )

Though undecideds may be tilting toward Oz after Fetterman's difficulties in the debate, the Democrat could be helped by early mail-in voting if this outcome is a razor-thin margin.

The Cook Political Report moved this race from "Lean Dem" to "Toss Up" for a reason. Don't be surprised if it's too close to call election night.