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Oerthling t1_jba4mz9 wrote

It's going to be a wild ride for sure. But outside of planes I don't think that fossil fuels in general have much future.

Ships can be moved by some combination of wind power (turbines, not sails for large container ships), batteries or "green" hydrogen (which makes such hydrogen effectively a kind of fluid battery).

Large, long range planes are the one exception where a solution isn't available or easily foreseeable for the near (decade or 2) future, because of particular volume and weight restrictions.

The price of gasoline won't matter much when gas stations close. And gas stations will close when a sizable percentage of the customer base switched to BEVs.

Also, depending on regional market a more or less relevant percentage of the gas price is not just the cost of gas production and distribution but also taxes. And those taxes can easily get raised further to discourage gasoline. Which is likely to happen.

Diesel will quickly die alongside gasoline, except for a niche of construction vehicles, etc..

Diesel/gas won't make a difference when it comes to getting replaced by BEVs for regular cars. In a decade it might well be easier to find a charger than a gas station.

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cyberentomology t1_jba57v7 wrote

Absolutely, but the change in demand for the various fuels and fractions is not going to be simultaneous or linear, which is going to lead to some pretty wild fluctuations in supply (and consequently, prices). It will eventually find the right equilibrium, but that’s gonna take a while.

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