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GaiusCosades t1_j7s1zmt wrote

Everything you say is a great explanation, and I agree that things are more complex in contrast to the "overdue" concept with an imaginery constant energy bucket that must be emptied in some event.

But if it was true that a constant amount of energy must be dispensed regularly, I think that there is some kind of sweetspot with semi regular Mw 4.0 - 6.4 events which have their centers kind of distributed, instead of one big Mw 8.0 event where everything gets damaged. At least to obviously see which structures will crumble with the next event and which most likely won't.

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CrustalTrudger t1_j7u2922 wrote

For the sake of argument, lets sidestep that we can't effectively induce earthquakes in a controlled sense (i.e., we can't do something that we know for sure that will generate an earthquake of a target magnitude) or that wholesale changing the style of strain release of a given fault zone from something like 1 Mw 8.0 every 100 years to 1 Mw 5.0 every day (which is effectively what you would need to release the same radiated energy of a Mw 8.0 in Mw 5.0 events spread out over 100 years) is impossible.

Let's instead entertain the idea that there is some mechanism to start this process, i.e., we begin chipping away at the stored elastic strain sufficient to generate a Mw 8.0 with a carefully targeted Mw 5.0 event that we some how arrest the rupture of to keep it at a Mw 5.0. What did we accomplish? Well, we released a miniscule fraction of the total radiated energy we need, but we also have now changed the stress state on other parts of the target fault and neighboring faults (and in this, we need to remember that virtually no large fault is a single fault, but a network of faults, i.e., a fault system) through Coulomb stress transfer. So when we move to our next "patch" to try to rupture, the stored strain (and proximity to failure, etc.) will no longer be the same, not to mention we've now loaded adjoining faults, etc. The point being, you can't just have patches of fault fail in a vacuum, each one will impact the state of the system and not always in the direction you want, i.e., an earthquake on one patch can increase the strain on another patch, etc.

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GaiusCosades t1_j807fjp wrote

I in general am in completely agreement, because fault zones are not energy buckets that get filled and must be emptied by earthquakes. Nor can we stimulate the system to release a specific amount of energy. That is not how this works.

But just if we assume hypothetically that it was an energy bucket that gets filled constantly, and we would be able to trigger events of a specific magnitude, it would be beneficial economically (in repair cost) to trigger Mw 4.0 to 6.4 events regularly instead of waiting for the inevitable 8+ event.

I am just arguing a mathematical hypothetical, nothing more ;)

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