stdio-lib t1_j7y8nr3 wrote on February 10, 2023 at 6:35 AM

> most quickly-accessible answers are 25x CO2. The IPCC reports it as 84. This is a huge discrepancy

You're probably comparing apples to oranges. Their effects are not time invariant: methane has a stronger effect in the short term but breaks down sooner, whereas enough CO2 to cause the same amount of warming in that period would have a far more disastrous effect in the long term.

UnamedStreamNumber9 t1_j7yxz5x wrote on February 10, 2023 at 12:07 PM

Methane breaks down to CO2. The discrepancy is mostly like due to one method looking at the “instantaneous” warming effect vs the warming for total time in atmosphere. Methane warm at the greater rate for 3-5 years before breaking down to CO2. CO2 in the atmosphere has a residence time on the order of a century. So, methane has the much higher warming potential (84x) by integrating its 3-5 years at 25x CO2 and then another century at same as CO2

Any-Broccoli-3911 t1_j7z0pwq wrote on February 10, 2023 at 12:36 PM

If you average 5 years of 25x and 100 years of 1x, compared to 100 years of 1x (CO2), that's 2.25x in average.

The long term average will always be smaller than the short term one.

Mutex70 t1_j7zg2mw wrote on February 10, 2023 at 2:42 PM

It's the right idea, but wrong numbers. Methane has a much higher immediate impact than CO2 (~84x CO2). As it breaks down over time, the reduces to same as CO2.

The comparative effect over 100 years is approximately 25x CO2

https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/oil-gas-and-coal/methane-emissions_en

BrndNwAccnt OP t1_j7y94dh wrote on February 10, 2023 at 6:40 AM

Thank you. If you are still interested the edit on my post may help clarify what I’m looking for.