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[deleted] t1_j0b8ezr wrote

Reply to comment by SonofTreehorn in Is there research comparing flu and RSV infection rates between covid vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts? by rowanskye

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aphasic t1_j0bea8m wrote

People are regularly exposed, every season we have X million exposed, and 5% or whatever are severe. Due to the pandemic we basically skipped 2X exposures that would have happened, so now we are having 2-3x all at once. Even if the same 5% were severe, it would be bad. That also ignores two other factors, viruses spread better in populations with fewer immune individuals to act like fire breaks, and we also probably put selection pressure on flu and rsv to be more contagious (to allow survival during covid measures). All of that together is probably a perfect storm of infection. We are probably infecting a lot more people per day than a normal year due to all these factors.

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niftyifty t1_j0bghc4 wrote

Thank you. So the firebreaks makes sense to me. Are we really 2x’ing exposure though? Wouldn’t exposure rates be somewhat consistent annually outside of pandemic years? Prime sent note exposed today than say 2019, correct? I guess what I’m asking is, shouldn’t this year just be “back to normal” If it is exposure related? Am I thinking of “exposure” incorrectly?

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