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Reasonable_Move9518 t1_ix9g1lm wrote

Reply to comment by boston_acc in So uh… are these Jehovahs Witnesses at the T stations ever going to go away? by jWalkerFTW

Lifetime average is certainly greater than 1. Otherwise the number of witnesses would decline over time. Even if it is slightly greater than 1... the religion spreads exponentially.

Spread of religions (and other social movements more broadly) follow viral dynamics: if the avg number of converts is greater than the average number of of believers, the religion or movement grows exponentially. If it is less than 1, it decays exponentially. If it is exactly 1, it remains the same size.

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boston_acc t1_ix9hrh3 wrote

Yeah, unfortunately memetics doesn’t work in our favor here. Religions that have ideas condoning spreadability and “till I die”-adherence are the ones that will climb highest in the race for frequency (I could’ve phrased that better but yeah).

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Reasonable_Move9518 t1_ix9lat9 wrote

Also add in religions that favor high birthrates...

I think Dune got it right... the far future of humanity will be more religious not less, due to "spreadability", fervency, and higher birthrates in religious vs. secular communities.

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boston_acc t1_ixa17mb wrote

At least once a population becomes embedded in secularism, it’s exceedingly hard to revert back. Maybe not governmentally (see Iran 1979) but for the population itself. I don’t think we’ve seen an example of that in history (not least because widespread secularism is new) but I could be wrong. Religion needs parents to propagate down the generations, so once you cut that off, it withers and withers. Most religions throughout history have not a trace left.

Anyway that’s just my philosophical rambling.

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THE_Killa_Vanilla t1_ixcs056 wrote

Agree with a lot of what you said here, but I think we need to re-evaluate our idea of what "religion" in modern society.

Simplify religion to a "shared set of core beliefs + principles by a group that reinforces a specific view of the world", shift the focus from theism to cultural homogeny, and you can see the "new religions" forming. We see it on both the right and left, think MAGA/Trumpism or "woke"/anti-racist cultures.

There are tons of similarities between conventional religion and these new cultural belief systems. Religion isn't dying, it's just transforming. At the end of the day people still need a framework to view the world and make sense of things.

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superiority t1_ixdqsa3 wrote

>Lifetime average is certainly greater than 1. Otherwise the number of witnesses would decline over time.

That doesn't follow. Conversion is not the only way to make new Witnesses. Some people are raised in the religion.

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Essarray t1_ixbfv7k wrote

They've closed and sold a few meeting places ("Kingdom Halls") over the past few years. I'm pretty sure their developed country numbers are shrinking although overall numbers might be on the up in places with spotty or no internet.

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