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NorthImpossible8906 t1_j7qcbg2 wrote

how is Karl Malone missing?

Elgin Baylor is obviously a problem, a flat line suddenly accelerates to a higher slope in projections, that's wrong. In fact, several lines have projections with higher slopes than their actual scoring, indicating the projections are wrong. In fact, there should be an attenuation on scoring as the projection goes forward.

Kareem was really a special case, because even has his physical skills diminished, he was still an unstoppable scorer because he could always post up and hit that sky hook. Lebron is a special case because he has not physically diminished.

PS (yeah, it's totally gambling)

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dcd4408 OP t1_j7qfzap wrote

The zoomed out version that I didn't post shows Elgin on pretty much the same trajectory, but he only played 11 games total in his last two seasons. And yeah, obviously there would be some attenuation in a true model but these are very basic projections. I made this for Reddit, not a publication lol.

Also, I just drew the line at top 5 avg ppg scorers of all time for the purpose of projections. Karl Malone is 11 on that last, Kobe 12

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NorthImpossible8906 t1_j7qgd33 wrote

Malone has nearly 37000 points, and is #3 on your graph. A somewhat significant omission. And Kobe is 4th.

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dcd4408 OP t1_j7qhpqe wrote

19th and 20th seasons, respectively, with avg scoring rates that wouldn't have surpassed the record mark by the 20th season (where LeBron and Kareem set their records), and 11th and 12th on the ppg avg. list, which excluded them from this list.

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