eldorado OP t1_j7uwhno wrote on February 9, 2023 at 4:12 PM

Reply to comment by Iron_Chic in [OC] Super Bowl Squares Probabilities: Factoring in the last eight years' historically weird NFL scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities (both oft-ignored) by __eldorado__

Haha, won't we all with the 2 and the 6. Yes, you still want 0, 7, 4, and 3... but as compared with the rest of the Super Bowl era (since 1966) prior to the time period shown above, the proliferation of the NFL's weird score era has made these Squares more equitable, shifting over seven percentage points' worth of probability from the traditional stalwarts (0,7,4,3,1) to less-common numbers (2,5,6,8,9). So getting 2s and 6s like you've mentioned actually isn't as bad as it was from 1966 to 2014 (or 1982 to 2014).

Iron_Chic t1_j7ux2a9 wrote on February 9, 2023 at 4:16 PM

With the addition of the 2 point conversion, increase of the yardage for the extra point conversion, and more teams trying to convert on 4th and short as opposed to kicking a FG, it makes sense.

eldorado OP t1_j7ux6bi wrote on February 9, 2023 at 4:17 PM

For example, 4 and 7 are each only about 80-85% as common as they were before 2015. (In 2015, the NFL moved the extra point distance back from 20 yards, where kickers converted 99% of the time, to 33 yards, where they now make only 94% of their extra-point kicks. Combined with near-record levels of field goals and 2-point conversion attempts, scores have gotten a lot weirder than they used to be.)