Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

sickagail t1_j8mxavd wrote

I'm a little confused.

The question asked is "will the market be higher or lower 12 months from now." But the plotted line seems to be a percentage change in the market, not a yes or no answer.

I'm guessing the prediction is something like "higher" answers minus "lower" answers. But a bunch of people saying "higher" is different from a bunch of people saying "30% higher."

89

ThoraciusAppotite t1_j8n0oz8 wrote

I'm confused what the difference between the blue line and the blue dots is.

As for your point though, see "probability matching"

15

mylarky t1_j8n8fo7 wrote

I think the lines are a filtered average?

8

Shellbyvillian t1_j8npblf wrote

Also, are the prediction results posted when the question was asked or when the prediction was based. I.e do I need to offset the prediction by 12 months to see if the prediction was accurate?

10

pheasant-plucker t1_j8nla0u wrote

You might still expect a correlation though. If the stock market is going to be a lot higher, you might expect that more people will say that it will be positive

4