Submitted by Social_Philosophy t3_113twme in dataisbeautiful
crimeo t1_j941e1x wrote
Reply to comment by Accurate_Reporter252 in [OC] Gun Homicide Rate vs. Gun Ownership Rate in the United States by Social_Philosophy
> You should read about
I know about those topics already. What you think they have to do with the conversation, though, I am not sure. You need to outline that yourself, I'm not going to guess your whole argument for you, if any.
> nonviolent protests last only to the tolerance of the government.
I just gave you a source showing that it literally not once has ever failed in all of modern history, worldwide, any form of government, anywhere, with even just a measly 3.5% of the population protesting, or more.
No. It's not "at the tolerance of" anything. It ALWAYS works. Governments can't do shit. Or else some of them would have. None of them have. None.
So... wrong. And already cited as wrong...
> Once more, the whole idea behind the American Second Amendment is the deterrence of needing violence again and the creation and maintenance of a government who would prefer nonviolent protesting to the application of violence.
The founders such as in the federalist papers made very clear they were talking about literal militias, to avoid the need for a standing army. Not anything to do with protesting or casual civilian affairs of any such sort. I have no idea where you got that idea from.
The fixation on individual gun ownership as a private one person or family unit matter began in the 1960s as a re-conceptualization of the amendment by the Black Panthers to give them an edge over the cops they were beefing with who didn't expect to see them walking around with shotguns on the street observing. Yes, their conceptualization is similar to yours. Which was then adopted by other groups like the NRA (which before that was totally into gun control). But that began in the 1960s. Not 1860s, not 1760s. Not Jefferson or Hamilton or Madison, etc...
> So, so far, the insurance mostly works. I mean, except for (1960s examples)
Uh https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waco_siege
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruby_Ridge
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Washington,_D.C.,_attack_and_hostage_taking
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montana_Freemen
https://www.nytimes.com/1997/05/04/us/separatists-end-texas-standoff-as-5-surrender.html
Meanwhile, do you have any examples of a situation where a group of people brandished guns at police to try and scare them off and it WORKED?
Accurate_Reporter252 t1_j94hxtt wrote
Meanwhile, do you have any examples of a situation where a group of people brandished guns at police to try and scare them off and it WORKED?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots
Hmmm... 1992 LA Riots is an easy one. LAPD totally just bunkered down for a while.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundy_standoff
Here's one with a specific Federal involvement.
Those are the easy ones.
"The founders such as in the federalist papers made very clear they were talking about literal militias, to avoid the need for a standing army. Not anything to do with protesting or casual civilian affairs of any such sort. I have no idea where you got that idea from."
They had just finished forcing the British government to leave the country and let them start a new government about 100 years after their ancestors did essentially the same thing and killed a king (before letting a new king back to take over).
I'm pretty sure they didn't think the part of armed overthrow of an overreaching government was necessary to spell out again, especially after the Declaration of Independence and the common understanding of a right to arms at the time... minus the racist efforts at disarming black people and natives.
"I just gave you a source showing that it literally not once has ever failed in all of modern history, worldwide, any form of government, anywhere, with even just a measly 3.5% of the population protesting, or more."
https://www.britannica.com/event/Libya-Revolt-of-2011
Peaceful protests...
...government attacks...
...civil war.
Eventually, they :"won" after a civil war and Qaddafi was gone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war
The Syrian Civil War started with peaceful protests.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PI060eBm5xM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Syrian_Revolution
Massive protests, government crackdown killing thousands, and then an armed response which is ongoing at this point.
There are others.
crimeo t1_j94linb wrote
> Bundy standoff
Alright that's a good example. Except:
-
They only seem to have stood down because the amount in dispute was only $1M. The cost to recruit and certify a police officer and the amount they have to pay out in survivor benefits to spouse and children if a single one dies can add up to $2M+... not very likely this would work with anything higher stakes or easier to respond to (such as more urban where they could be affordably overwhelmed sufficiently to just give up with minimal risk)
-
The guy was very obviously breaking the law and already received due process to that effect, so your example is pretty counterproductive to what your original argument was about standing up to tyranny. It being, instead, a criminal standing up to completely fair and resaonable treatment and avoiding paying what his own countrymen and peers voted for laws saying that he should pay... he stood up to the People, not to tyranny. So... the one clear successful example backfired actually...
> LA Riots is an easy one. LAPD totally just bunkered down for a while.
Right at the top "12,000 arrests were made" and "[police were blamed for] failure to de-escalate" i.e. the exact opposite of what you were supposed to be demonstrating...
Not being 100% active the entire time 24/7 is not "being stood down", and your own source summarizes them as being overall highly active, in fact too active.
> I'm pretty sure they didn't think the part of armed overthrow of an overreaching government was necessary to spell out again
You're "pretty sure" that an allegedly foundational principle of the country didn't need to be mentioned AT ALL in hundreds of pages of commentary about the foundational principles of the country. Despite even the fact that they DID take the time to write down thoughts at some length about the 2nd amendment specifically, but still mysteriously didn't have the time (?) to include the "actual" reasons for it. Lol alright dude.
Or maybe you just made that up, and it was about state militias removing the need for a federal standing army. You know, exactly like they explicitly say it was about. And that's it. Wacky alternative theory!
> https://www.britannica.com/event/Libya-Revolt-of-2011
Not peaceful protests anymore, because they started shooting back. I, and my source, were quite clear when I said no PEACEFUL protests greater than 3.5% have ever failed.
> The Syrian Civil War started with peaceful protests.
Not peaceful protests anymore because they started shooting back. So invalid datapoint.
Not sure what's so confusing about what I said, it's really not that complicated. 3.5% of the populaiton + peaceful = 100% success rate.
Your own sources also confirm the same mechanism I described: when they got gunned down initially, it garnered massive local + international sympathy, which is what would have won it for them if they stayed peaceful. Numbers of involved protesters swell much faster than bodies piling up do (you kill one guy, his whole family and best friends join the protests), sanctions start raining down internationally, etc.
When you shoot back, people stop gaining any swell of massive sympathy. You may sometimes still win, but statistically half as often as if you hadn't shot back. Not 0%, just half, but still unstrategic to do so. The bullets are about 50% as effective as the sympathy would have been.
Accurate_Reporter252 t1_j94x6lu wrote
>Alright that's a good example. Except:
>
>They only seem to have stood down because the amount in dispute was only $1M. The cost to recruit and certify a police officer and the amount they have to pay out in survivor benefits to spouse and children if a single one dies can add up to $2M+... not very likely this would work with anything higher stakes or easier to respond to (such as more urban where they could be affordably overwhelmed sufficiently to just give up with minimal risk)The guy was very obviously breaking the law and already received due process to that effect, so your example is pretty counterproductive to what your original argument was about standing up to tyranny. It being, instead, a criminal standing up to completely fair and resaonable treatment and avoiding paying what his own countrymen and peers voted for laws saying that he should pay... he stood up to the People, not to tyranny. So... the one clear successful example backfired actually...
So, the fear of the outcome of an armed attack stopped the government's actions?
Ah.
Also, all charges were dismissed with prejudice. That means no convictions. That means--at the end of the day--not a crime.
Ergo... not a backfire.
"Not being 100% active the entire time 24/7 is not "being stood down", and your own source summarizes them as being overall highly active, in fact too active."
LAPD literally bunkered down.
They put up barriers around precincts, stopped patrolling, and turned the city over to everyone else.
Then, later, the National Guard and the regular military (Army and Marines) came in and "showed the flag" with very limited access to more than small arms to avoid situations where the military shot up local buildings in the Detroit riots and others.
"You're "pretty sure" that an allegedly foundational principle of the country didn't need to be mentioned AT ALL in hundreds of pages of commentary about the foundational principles of the country. Despite even the fact that they DID take the time to write down thoughts at some length about the 2nd amendment specifically, but still mysteriously didn't have the time (?) to include the "actual" reasons for it. Lol alright dude."
I notice in all of our conversation so far, you haven't mentioned breathing, shitting, or eating.
Sort of a universal thing, those three.
Unless you're sick, have a fetish, or are looking for restaurant suggestions, those don't come up in typical conversations because they are assumed.
Likewise, we have basically nothing in the US Constitution about farming or the founding documents about farming except with regards to slavery, interstate commerce, and the like.
This isn't because farming isn't important. It's because everyone assumes farming will happen.
Why would you spend time discussing a right you just used to create your own government--a right assumed to be present in English common law to that time since at least the 1680's--other than the particulars regarding potential changes like the militia vs. standing army discussion?
You wouldn't. Just like you aren't going to talk about what your breath smells like or whether your bowel movements are firm or loose.
Other things not mentioned in the founding documents:
Sex.
What the definition of a woman is.
How marriage laws are constructed.
What the proper age of wine should be.
What language to use on most documents.
Etc.
All of which end up being important later, but are assumed and relevant to discussions in certain ways.
"Not peaceful protests anymore, because they started shooting back. I, and my source, were quite clear when I said no PEACEFUL protests greater than 3.5% have ever failed."
Exactly so!
They started peaceful.
Then people started dying.
Then they fought back.
Now there's an ongoing civil war.
The peaceful part depended on the actions of the government.
When the government decided to start killing people, they had a choice. Let the government kill all of them (or however many the government wanted to kill) or to shut up and go home.
Or are you suggesting you should continue to peacefully protest amidst incoming machine gun fire?
"Your own sources also confirm the same mechanism I described: when they got gunned down initially, it garnered massive local + international sympathy, which is what would have won it for them if they stayed peaceful. Numbers of involved protesters swell much faster than bodies piling up do (you kill one guy, his whole family and best friends join the protests), sanctions start raining down internationally, etc."
So, in the beginning, you suggested governments make economic decisions as part of this process...
...which implies the question of whether it's cheaper to simply keep shooting peaceful protestors with machine guns until they stop protesting (or being alive to protest) is a key element to this discussion.
And the answer is that it's probably cheaper--once you start shooting--to keep shooting until you win in many cases because you don't have to worry about "peaceful protestors" costing you more than money for bullets.
And--by the way--know what else swells when you kill people?
Their body, in the streets as they decompose once you've killed their entire family.
What's to stop you?
International sympathy?
International efforts to block you economically?
Like how it's working with Putin and the Chinese government who are "hosting" large numbers of ethnic minorities who would "peacefully protest" if they didn't expect to get killed anyway....
So, you either put up with things the way they are now or you "peacefully protest" and hope for sympathy while the government machine guns you and your friends and your family.
Sounds like a real winner.
crimeo t1_j951jec wrote
> So, the fear of the outcome of an armed attack stopped the government's actions?
Yes I already agreed it was a valid example...?
> That means no convictions.
The charges for showing up with guns and shit were dropped. The $1,000,000 fines and the grazing injunction were not dropped, still apply, and had due process in arriving at them. The grazing is and has been all along a properly categorized crime (or misdemeanor or tort or whatever the technical category is). The gun play is not.
So making the government not bother to enforce the illegal grazing penalties is a man standing up against the People and the Rule of Law.
People thwarting the rule of law and due process is absolutely a backfire. Or are you "pretty sure" the founders meant for rule of law to not be a thing either, but just didn't get the time to write that down either?
> LAPD literally bunkered down.
So did people in the Battle of Britain during every bomb sortie, which the allies then proceeded to win. So what? Bunkering down during hot spots =/= backing down or quitting or running away or losing. So what? They absolutely did not, according to your own source, stay bunkered down the whole time. it is mentioned only infrequently in narrow situations in the timeline.
> They put up barriers around precincts, stopped patrolling, and turned the city over to everyone else.
If only your own source backed you up on that, cool fanfiction though. What it actually says was that not only were police continuing to work, but they were airlifting in MORE police from surrounding areas up to and through the same period of time that the national guard were arriving.
Your own source also talks about all kinds of PATROLS in different areas of the city up to the same point in the timeline as the national guard, and those patrols being reinforced, and what they were up to and so on.
The hell are you talking about, seriously?
> I notice in all of our conversation so far, you haven't mentioned breathing, shitting, or eating.
I would if I was writing a summary medical/anatomy textbook 😂 The equivalent of the federalist papers and/or constitution and/or declaration of independence and other founding documents, specifically all about laying out the foundational principles.
And I would mention breathing dozens of times, if I furthermore had a chapter on the lungs specifically and what exactly the lungs were for, which is the equivalent of having essays on the second amendment and what exactly its purpose was and what balance was struck, etc.
> Then people started dying. Then they fought back.
At which point they reduced their chance of success by 50% versus not fighting back and remaining peaceful. Correct.
> The peaceful part depended on the actions of the government.
No... Them CHOOSING to fight back depended on THEM.
> Or are you suggesting you should continue to peacefully protest amidst incoming machine gun fire?
Yes, I have ELI5'ed this multiple times. If you want to have double the chance of success, that is exactly correct. Remain non violent. Do you want to have double the chance of success? Or not? (In case you're unaware, by the way, "running away" from a gun currently shooting at you is non-violent.)
And if you get 3.5% of the population in on it as well, your chance of success goes to around 100%
> simply keep shooting peaceful protestors with machine guns until they stop protesting
They DON'T "stop protesting" when you shoot them a lot. They protest MORE. Your industries start shutting down from strikes, your treasure stops flowing in. The protestors swell from outrage making recruitment easy as hell for them, and they now outnumber your henchmen by 40:1 instead of 10:1. Then next month 100:1 if you keep shooting more... your own guys start defecting because whoops! You shot your own lieutenant's cousin yesterday. Oopsie, he went to the protestors. And the whole rest of the world meanwhile joins them in protesting and begins to sanction you back to the stone age...
Your question is inherently leading in that you wrote into it an incorrect assumption that "you can make people stop by shooting them". No. You can't. Your assumed premise is simply wrong, according to all examples from modern history.
> What's to stop you? International sympathy?
Yes, that and domestic sympathy causing them to recruit +5 people locally for every one you shoot. As we see from a wide array of examples throughout modern history.
> Like how it's working with Putin and the Chinese government who are "hosting" large numbers of ethnic minorities who would "peacefully protest" if they didn't expect to get killed anyway....
They don't have 3.5% of the population, remember the TWO extremely simple rules I told you? Peaceful + 3.5%...
Uyghurs for example only number about 12 million people, out of 1,400 million Chinese overall... even if they organized at unprecedented levels and an incredible half of their number got out and protested at once, that'd be less than 1/2 of 1% of China.
Jews were about 0.5% of Germany in 1933
Armenians were about 4% of Turkey in 1915 (but it has to be people joined to the cause and actually protesting, you obviously won't get 88% of your group out protesting right out of the gate)
> Sounds like a real winner.
Yes. Correct. Unironically yes. The data shows it is a winner 2x more often than violence is. The data happening to conflict with your angry monkey brain telling you "monkey revenge! ooh ooh monkey smash!" does not make the data wrong, sorry.
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