Roulette simulation: 10'000 players each betting 5'000 times (74% chance of having a negative return ) [OC]Nitz93 t1_irxbi7o wrote
Cool simulation!
If you multiply the chance to win by the payout you get something like 0.97 For all bets except on numbers where it's 0.95.
Obviously this assumes a normal table not the scam double zero table.
Anyways could you please run it while they bet on red instead of numbers only?
Some roulette logic:
For every dollar you throw in (without stupid stuff like betting on 18+ numbers at once or red+black) you get 94.6 or 97.3 cents back.
(1/37) × 35 = 0.945 number
(12/37) x 3 = 0.973 one third
(18/37) x 2 = 0.973 one half (red / black / even / odd)
(2/37) x 17 = 0.97 splitting a number
... = 0.97 splitting 3 numbers
...
At 1 number the payout is only 35 instead of the 36 you should be getting. And the dealer pressures you into giving 1 bet as tip... so the average payout is only 92 cents.
Anyways could you run something else for me too?
What I wanna see is how to maximize the chance for not playing like an idiot.
Like is betting on only 1 number superior to 2? To 16? To 25? Is the switch really at 18?
Like 17 numbers at once should be the same average payout as 1, while starting at 19 it should become lower til it you go full crazy and bet on all 37.
What about number 1 + red vs #1 + black? Imo 1 n red should be better but apparently it's the same.
Is red only better than red + last 1/3
Or is #1, red, odd, first 1/3 less stupid than #1, black, even, last 1/3?
My math friend says it doesn't matter but it's so unintuitive to me.
Purplekeyboard t1_irxnrzf wrote
> What I wanna see is how to maximize the chance for not playing like an idiot.
Switch to blackjack. The house edge is only 0.5% instead of 5%, assuming you play proper blackjack strategy.
Ma1eficent t1_irxy6ak wrote
Isn't that jacked by the multiple decks they use now?
CptMisterNibbles t1_irzycp8 wrote
Multiple decks is an attempt to prevent card counting, which allows players to gain statistically significant information used to adjust their strategy to the point where they beat out the house edge.
Purplekeyboard t1_irxzu7l wrote
No. Regardless of how many decks there are, your odds are the same.
Ma1eficent t1_iry05e9 wrote
Time to lose my money at the blackjack table!
melanthius t1_irym05d wrote
While I know that is true, it just triggers me way too much to keep getting dealt 12s and 13s and then busting.
Craps is way more my game
nautilus_red OP t1_iry2fjj wrote
First of all thanks for acknowledging the simulation!
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>My math friend says it doesn't matter but it's so unintuitive to me.
I try to give you an intuitive answer for this one. if I would ask you which of the following two options has a higher probability to roll a six:
(a) Roll ten dices at the same time.
(b) Roll one dice ten times.
It would be very obvious (I hope) that (a) and (b) are exactly the same because in the end you rolled ten dice and each outcome is independent of each other no matter if rolled all at once ore one by one. Now applied to our roulette scenario (a) would be betting multiple numbers on the table and (b) would be betting only one number at the time. So, it really doesn't matter how you approach that.
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>What I wanna see is how to maximize the chance for not playing like an idiot.
Well if you play to win than there is no hope because you cannot win as I am quite sure you already know. What we could do is minimize our expected loss by finding the least worst strategy (we can also call it the best but you are still not winning). I am no guru when it comes to roulette but you could easily simulate that e.g. if you want to know whats your expected chance of walking away by betting on red all the time over X amount of bets.
=> If you are interested in gambling strategies read about Martingale strategy which is quite interesting but spoiler: it doesn't work either. Here is an example: Hyperlink
If you cannot simulate it yourself I might be able to do so but you find my Python code in another comment I replied to.
Colmarr t1_irz1ay6 wrote
>Now applied to our roulette scenario (a) would be betting multiple numbers on the table and (b) would be betting only one number at the time. So, it really doesn't matter how you approach that.
This isn't a sound analogy.
10 dice can (and probably will) return 6 different results).
One spin of the roulette wheel cannot return 6 different results.
You're probably right that betting multiple numbers doesn't change the odds (I haven't checked), but it's not for the reason you've expressed here.
Edit: I think I see what you mean. You are suggesting that placing a bet is like rolling a dice (not that spinning the wheel is like rolling a dice). In that context yes the analogy works.
Nitz93 t1_irzpu8d wrote
Think of a 37 Sided dice.
Nitz93 t1_irznbn8 wrote
Mathematical chance vs real life
1/2 and 1/4 + 1/4 would be the same chance, as are 10 dice vs 10 rolls of 1 dice. But I am not here for math, it's about reality.
You know the guys in your simulation all had the same odds. I wanna improve the overall odds, a method where more people would win.
And if you consider real life end points;
- like if you play til you win. This could happen on roll 11 of the singular dice, but for the 10 rolls it must be the 20. So the payout is lowered by 9 bets.
If you already won 17k you may decide to keep on playing til you win or lose 2k.
Or you start with 7k, stop playing once you hit 2k.
These situations are real, you know the overall chance to win at 50 spins is the same but you won't play exactly 50 spins.
In the simulation/real life there must be some super lucky gamblers, those win more often by pure chance and that should happen slightly more often in a group of people playing only 1 number vs people playing 2/3/../17 numbers at once.
*and of course much more often in groups playing better odds than only numbers.
Yeah one is always an idiot when playing but losing 5 bucks on a roulette table is fun. 30-100 bucks is fair price for a fun evening. I just want the most bang for my bucks.
IkeRoberts t1_is0efjt wrote
>30-100 bucks is fair price for a fun evening. I just want the most bang for my bucks.
Calculating a value-maximizing betting strategy for that goal would be interesting. Betting $1 every other spin would stretch the funds but not the fun.
Nitz93 t1_is0g3fu wrote
Should be 1 bet per game, everything but a betting directly on a number.
Splitting a number or 4 is OK, going for red or so too.
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