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GoodellsMandMs t1_irzdt51 wrote

Reply to comment by HoDgePoDgeGames in Roulette simulation: 10'000 players each betting 5'000 times (74% chance of having a negative return ) [OC] by nautilus_red

You’re guaranteeing you lose at least one of your bets

Surely this isn’t close to profitable

67% of time you’ll win one and get you initial bets back (pays 2:1, and you lose the other)

33% of the time you lost both bets

This system makes no sense, best case scenario is like you didn’t play

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Sword_Thain t1_irzikh6 wrote

You still keep your original bet, so you bet 2x, on a win, loose 1x, win 2x, so you end up with 3x.

The failure of this system is that one loss requires 2 wins just to return to even. A cascade failure is real and I've seen it.

Former roulette dealer.

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GoodellsMandMs t1_irzitho wrote

Still dumb as fuck, just not quite as dumb as I originally thought lol

nvm, he wont lose more money, hell just lose his money faster

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IGoUnseen t1_is0m5ry wrote

It's just an adjustment on how often you win and how much each win is. There is a wide variety in the casino on how much different bets pay out and how likely they are to win. There are bets that are very unlikely to win and pay out a lot when they do, and there are bets that pay very little but are likely to win. This particular set of bets leans heavily to the latter, it only pays 1 to 2, but wins almost 2/3s of the time. It's overall house edge is the same as any other bet on the roulette table.

It is fair to say this bet has lower variance compared to other bets, which is what most people look for in gambling, but if this guy enjoys betting that way, there is nothing wrong with it. He won't lose any more in the long run than a person betting black every spin.

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[deleted] t1_is13s6r wrote

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IGoUnseen t1_is14fre wrote

That's only because in your example he's betting twice as much. A two unit bet on black is the same house edge as two one unit bets on different dozen bets.

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GoodellsMandMs t1_is14v1r wrote

youre right, its not a strategy to lose more money, its just a strategy to lose money faster lol

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IGoUnseen t1_is17qg5 wrote

Not really, only if you are betting twice as much. If you're average bet would be normally 10 dollars, and you instead bet 5 dollars on each of those, it's equivalent to one 10 dollar bet.

This applies more generally to all bets in roulette. Every single bet in roulette has the exact same house edge and can often be replicated by multiple bets of a different one. I.E. one double number bet has the same odds as two single number bets of the same amount. Making two dozen number bets is equivalent to a hypothetical 24 number bet that just isn't normally offered at the table.

Basically, how much you lose at roulette is 100% based on the volume of your overall bet. Which numbers/bets you select does not matter. The only thing it matters towards is variance. Some people want to have rare large wins and frequent small losses, some people want frequent small wins and rare large losses. The selection of numbers you pick will affect that, but again not the expected amount lost.

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IkeRoberts t1_is0dw8n wrote

It is a good system if you want to win often. It is a bad system if you want a chance to get a big win. All systems are bad if you want to make money gambling--it is entertainment you pay for.

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