Submitted by Holiday_Chemistry_72 t3_11emupg in explainlikeimfive
Chaotic_Lemming t1_jaf2ud5 wrote
Reply to comment by Holiday_Chemistry_72 in ELI5 Why do low odds will 100% happen eventually? by Holiday_Chemistry_72
Imagine you have a dice with 1 million sides. Your chance of rolling 123,456 is 1 in 1 million, or 0.0001%. You start rolling the dice once a day. Each day the chance the dice will land on 123,456 is 1 in 1 million. That doesn't change day to day. Now lets fast forward in time 10 million days. You've rolled the dice 10 million times. Each individual roll was still a super tiny chance. But the odds that you won't have landed on 123,456 in those 10 million roles is approximately 0.0045%. (0.999999^10,000,000)
There is still a chance that you won't have rolled a 123,456 but it is very small.
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