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cmlobue t1_ja86wa6 wrote

Reply to comment by chemist612 in ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local

0.838 is the probability of having at least one 6 among your ten rolls. You need to get into binomial distributions for the probability of a specific number of events. Exactly one six somewhere in the sequence is probability 0.323.

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chemist612 t1_ja9bm60 wrote

You are correct. I should have said at least 1 six. But the logic still holds for the types of arguments people try to make about 9 non-6s in a row, so the 10th must have a higher probability, but in-fact it doesn't.

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