Submitted by Reason-Local t3_11de5ag in explainlikeimfive
atheism-blocker101 t1_ja99500 wrote
Reply to comment by johrnjohrn in ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local
I feel bad for you because I 100% think the exact same way as you do about this and am second-hand frustrated that nobody has dealt with your actual point
johrnjohrn t1_ja9a36l wrote
Thanks for validating. I empathize with the math. When it comes to casinos or whatever, there are likely strings that will come out of any number of dice throws, but you bet your ass that at some point the pit bosses will start watching closely, never dismissing the lead up to this point. At some point the manager is called in from off duty. At some point the game is shut down. The gambler can't just get away with saying, "But each roll has an independent probability!" No, the casino crew has now "fallen victim to the gamblers fallacy". But inherently, we understand they haven't. They have made a reasonable decision that they can't afford that person throwing the dice one more time. But what was the point of shutting it down if the dice were fair and any number of gamblers could start doing the same thing on any other number of tables? Do all casinos just shut down forever, therefore falling victim to some version of the fallacy?
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