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theBarneyBus t1_j26zwsv wrote

Reply to comment by dont-YOLO-ragequit in Eli5 - probability by Ok_Elk_4333

I don’t think I’m quite understanding.
The issue is thinking that one shuffle from an ordered deck is “as random” as one that has been shuffled 1000 times. They’re not. The first one is MUCH more likely to happen than the other (and thus is not truly random)

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dont-YOLO-ragequit t1_j274t1v wrote

What i'm saying is even if you take 10 cards, shuffle them and put them back with the rest, that 52 card order is still one of the many possible orders that could happen if you shuffled all the cards( it would be a bad one but still ine of the possibilities.

Same as what are the chance the a 5 ball lottery winning ticket is X-Y- 48-49-50. Is it a bad sequence but it is still a ticket that has as the same chance of winning as a really random ticket like 9-23-29-36-42..

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