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DarthBuzzard t1_j8xltmp wrote

Reply to comment by Caughtnow in Exclusive: Tencent scraps plans for VR hardware as metaverse bet falters by BlueLightStruct

> Tbh I think analysts were full of crap and way off the mark, as they often are.

The annoying thing is that all these VR companies have been telling people from the start not to expect it to be mainstream even in 2023, and that includes Zuck/Facebook all the way back in 2015.

Truth gets distorted. The media picks up on all these analysts who don't understand anything other than mature technology growth patterns, and then that all gets reported across all the mainstream media outlets, and then everyone reads that and takes it as gospel for actual sales figures and targets being missed.

Talk to an engineer at any one of these VR companies and every single one of them will say that VR is at best, as mature as an early 1980s PC. It took until 1992 before PCs took off, and longer for them to hit the majority of homes. That's the kind of timescale at play here - it's always been the timescale for the majority of hardware shifts, but again, the truth gets distorted and history is rewritten in people's minds to where new hardware has to be a fast shift otherwise it's a failure.

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buntopolis t1_j8y1xxi wrote

God damn, was it really 1992 when PCs became ubiquitous? That’s wild. Looking back at my life, I suppose I almost always had one or at least access to one. Didn’t realize I was actually alive when they really took off.

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DarthBuzzard t1_j8y2kcd wrote

Mainstream. It still took longer to become ubiquitous, as only a minority of homes had them in 1992, but it had passed a 25% household adoption rate, which from what I can tell, is a figure that tends to get used for judging mainstream success.

Here's an interesting set of statistics showing the rough sales of the emerging PC industry: https://web.archive.org/web/20120606052317/http://jeremyreimer.com/postman/node/329

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