It's impossible to know, and I'm an institutionalist, so my bias comes from that POV, but I don't think it would have mattered. The problem with the USSR had more to do with corrupt and ineffective institutions, and that's carried through to the modern day. This treaty, and pretty much any other treaty like it, would just be putting different curtains on the windows. It wouldn't have done anything to fix a court system to make enforceable contracts, or to protect people from the government, or to make the incentives for public employees to not be corrupt, or to make businesses competitive in the world markets. Also, as countries like the Baltic states and Poland improved their economies, the failure would have been more apparent and created resentment. I think it would have just delayed Ukrainian independence for a little while, but that's probably it.