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WhoWhatWhereWhenHowY t1_ivn1l2i wrote

It's an estimate. There is a statistical chance they are wrong. Each network/organization likely has an error they are willing to tolerate when they make a call. Say 95 percent certainty.

Now let's pretend we live in a fictitious nation composed of two states. This country also has the same two parties we have. Let's call the first state Texas. 80 percent of the people there have historically voted Republican. 20 percent Democrat. State two is just the opposite. We can call state 2 California where 80 percent vote D and 20 percent R.

Now after ballots are cast California votes start to get counted and with only 50 percent of the California vote (25 percent of nation vote) counted, an upset has occurred and all 40 percent have voted Republican. Now without even 1 single vote counted in Texas you can feel comfortable with calling the election for the Republicans because you know it is unlikely Texas would swing.

Now substitute states for towns, add in a lot more towns and various other certainties, tweak models and BAM. You can statistically predict the outcome of an election with very limited data.

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tahitidreams t1_ivpr9zq wrote

So with this explanation, how does a state that will vote either way historically report a winner with only 1% in?

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WhoWhatWhereWhenHowY t1_ivqx5na wrote

That's where polling ahead of time/exit polling is likely used. In our governor race Sununu had such a large lead in the polls that in reality even waiting for 1 percent is kind of a formality. Again, polls can be incorrect but the likelihood of them being wrong by 10+ percent is unlikely.

This is also why different organizations call things at different times; they each have different standards to when they feel confident enough to call the election.

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