RisksRewardsRelics t1_j1t44ey wrote on December 27, 2022 at 4:35 AM

Reply to comment by sje46 in Failed meme but NH placement is precious by WoobieBee

Civil war would cause a breakdown in the supply and distribution chain that everyone relies on. Both sides would suffer in that regard.

The right may own more guns, but those stats don’t take into consideration how many guns are being stockpiled by individuals.

From all of the right wing militia training videos I’ve seen, their focus seems to be on intimidation, rather than gaining any sort of tactical advantage. The left may be unorganized by comparison (and they absolutely are), but they generally tend to be better prepared with a broader skill set as individuals. Take a look at the American Revolution… the minutemen were farmers, cobblers and merchants. They didn’t train together very much and they were scattered about the countryside. They still managed to defeat the richest and most organized imperialist army on the planet.

One other thing you need to consider is that those threatening civil war are a small percentage of far-right extremists. If they start battling with the population and attacking critical infrastructure, it’s not going to be only leftists fighting back, they’ll likely also be battling against less extreme right-leaning individuals. They will be quickly outnumbered by people who they initially believe share their ideology.

sje46 t1_j1t54vk wrote on December 27, 2022 at 4:44 AM

Agreed, I don't actually think it'd be a geographically clean, traditional war. I'm just assuming the scenario assumed in the meme. That set of states versus the other set of states...who wins?

I don't think the right-wing larpers are necessarily super organized, agreed, but that they at least have arms (including surprisingly powerful stuff), military vehicles, camo, and a lot of them were in the military and very devoted.

Also the 18th century was basically a different world. They didn't have tanks, aircraft carriers, planes, etc. It's like how people assume Julius Caesar completely dominated the Gauls because he was from the more advanced culture. Certainly he won and he was always going to win, but since the tech level differences were smaller, it was a much harder battle than we in the modern day can truly appreciate.

So an actual civil war along these lines would involve half the military fighting the other half, with regular citizens being conscripted and sent to the front lines. It's at the front lines that the more gun-savvy and militiamen will have an advantage over the left. For the people not fighting, the conservative faction will simply shut off the roads, railroads, electricity, supply chain, and food for the enemy.

In actuality, I think any "civil war" would probably be more like small insurgencies that the government as a whole would try to take down, and it's not going to resemble the first american civil war in a "cleanly geographical" way.