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rainforestguru t1_itvhxs4 wrote

Reply to comment by lexilous in Atmospheric levels of all three greenhouse gases hit record high by hugglenugget

How many years until climate sensitive areas are fked? Geologist here 🤙🏼

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lexilous t1_itvp8cw wrote

I'm not an expert on that, but huge climate migration is expected by mid-century already - I've seen estimates of anywhere from ~150 million to ~1 billion. In general, the frequency of extremes will be increasing gradually but consistently. These changes would typically include more intense and/or frequent extreme precipitation and heat waves; and even if overall precipitation totals stay the same or increase, it being delivered in these very intense extreme events with less light and moderate rain in between will increase the likelihood of drought. Rapid intensification of hurricanes/typhoons has increased as well, and will likely continue to do so in the future. So that would be an influence in many tropical and subtropical regions. I would worry about the greatest danger for short-term catastrophic changes being in regions that already experience extreme drought, fire, life-threatening heat, or monsoons, all of which stand to be intensified by climate change. Anyway, as for a specific time frame - I don't have an answer beyond...it's already becoming a problem, and will only get worse over the next few decades.

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InsuranceToTheRescue t1_itvsaob wrote

To add to this, we will see sea level rise over the next century that will force the majority of the globe's population to go somewhere else or invest in expensive infrastructure projects like massive sea walls. The mass migrations will strain, and in some places break, food supply chains. There is likely going to be massive social upheaval to accompany all of this.

On one somewhat bright note, we have likely avoided a hothouse Earth, where a feedback loop begins and the planet becomes too warm to support human life. This also assumes that our estimates for methane in polar regions is somewhat accurate.

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Vallkyrie t1_itwg76e wrote

> and even if overall precipitation totals stay the same or increase, it being delivered in these very intense extreme events with less light and moderate rain in between will increase the likelihood of drought.

I can already see it now, the propagandists are going to twist this data to their audiences as "Look, there's no more or less rain than before! Checkmate!" and those of us who understand the issue are going to need a 3rd hand to facepalm.

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MrJoyless t1_itw7vbc wrote

40% of the world's population lives within 1 mile of the coast... we're talking billions that'll be displaced.

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greynolds17 t1_itwpgli wrote

but the effect of higher seas wont be the same along every section of coast, mostly just the low-lying areas will be effected

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I_likeIceSheets t1_itw391e wrote

I'm (slightly) more in the realm of climate (paleoclimate and glaciers are more my thing). There's no specific time. It's more of a spectrum of fcked than a threshold of fcked ... if that makes sense. While there are physical thresholds in the climate system, like with ice sheets and the biosphere, how we're impacted isn't concrete.

Here's what I tell people: the longer we delay action, the worse the climate crisis will get. It means two things that are very important to understand:

  1. The climate crisis will get worse if actions are not taken. Life will increasingly become more uncomfortable and certain weather events will become more dangerous/deadly. It won't be the end of the world or life as we know it, but it will be fucked.

  2. We can always prevent the worst from happening. By taking action now or later, we can make the climate crisis less fcked in the future. Though some things might not be reversed, we can still make a things better relative to what they could be.

One more thing: everywhere is a climate sensitive area. Be prepared.

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lexilous t1_itw9xf2 wrote

Seconding this! It's not "in the year 2050, all the shit will hit the fan." It's "everywhere will be getting a little more extreme every decade, on average." There are various extreme thresholds (too hot or cold, wet or dry) beyond which human life cannot thrive. The point of "fcked" in a given region would occur when the conditions move beyond that threshold. This is why regions where humans already live close to that climatological threshold - deserts, vulnerable coastlines, dangerous monsoon regions - will be some of the first to go.

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