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shin_datenshi t1_j1shzzz wrote

Reply to comment by Evening_Presence_927 in NYC shootings and murders down: Mayor Adams by Darrkman

I don't but I'm pretty sure it was on this subreddit. I'm sure I can come up with it, not sure about the validity or correlation of any of this. I'm no scientist, I'm just a monkey with a laptop.

e: it definitely said in the headline though that record numbers of people left NY this year and the majority of them went to Florida and Texas along with apparently everyone else. maybe that was the Reddit post or it was edited. the record part hardly changes anything anyway. it's still 300k and that's significant in comparison to everywhere else, even adjusted for population.

correction The reddit post title said "record" iirc. I do not know the validity or definition of what record this may qualify for at all. Link is in these comment chains to the article. The point obv still stands that yes, a lot of people are still leaving NY and particularly NYC, mostly for FL and TX for whatever reasons make those places most attractive.

"some 319,020 residents fled New York state between July 2020 and July 2021, according to US Census Bureau data released last week — a 1.6% year-over-year loss that made New York the nation’s leading state for population decline."

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Evening_Presence_927 t1_j1sjtur wrote

How do you know what it said in the headline of you can’t find it on here to corroborate?

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shin_datenshi t1_j1snrn1 wrote

because uh, i remember exactly what it said? I'll find it.

E: nvm let me just google that for you now aaaand

https://nypost.com/2021/12/27/why-new-yorkers-are-fleeing-to-texas-and-florida/

also i didnt downvote you, i hate when people do that. Rediquette: downvote is intended to only be used for posts that add absolutely nothing to the conversation, therefore it benefits no one to see them. NOT for expressing disagreement, but no one cares ofc. Asking not-so-nicely for a source is the opposite of adding nothing to the conversation.

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Sharlach t1_j1sp21a wrote

This article says nothing about how many people are leaving and whether it's breaking any records or not. It's about only 4 people, and one of them is from Long Island. Learn to read.

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shin_datenshi t1_j1splln wrote

I read it, and from my own anecdotal and observational experience living here, it represents a real trend(s) we may or may not be currently experiencing.

Like I said, I made no claim of this article having empirical proof. I originally said it was a spicy headline remember? maybe I should have included the /s

also I guess the record only includes 20-21, probably since we don't have full data on 22 yet. The Reddit post said something about a record, I believe referring to THIS part of the article.. "lEarM to Reed"

Some 319,020 residents fled New York state between July 2020 and July 2021, according to US Census Bureau data released last week — a 1.6% year-over-year loss that made New York the nation’s leading state for population decline.

says nothing except about 4 people, except all those other people. but last year doesn't count and the trend MUST have stabilized by now, right?

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Sharlach t1_j1srqdc wrote

If you misremembered something, just own up to it and move on. I don't give a fuck about people leaving the state anyway. WTH does that have to do with NYC crime rates? You understand the state and the city are two different things, right?

And are you seriously trying to argue that the pandemic had nothing to do with people leaving the city? Do you even have a point? WTF are you trying to say? Can't say I expect any better from a NYpost reader.

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shin_datenshi t1_j1u9wnj wrote

No good response? thought so.

>E: blocked me did they? You know I can still see it in my notifications right? lol.
>
>figures, I'm the crazy one who can't make a point and needs to be on meds according to them yet I did all the Googling for everyone that asked cause they were lazy and incredulous that such a take exists SOMEWHERE on the internet.
>
>I never cared to make a point if you read up. There was an article that said a bunch of people left new york and that it is chart topping numbers. Idk if it was in fact a record nor do i care, someone was just splitting hairs over that part. The important part was like 2-3 people doubted the existence of said articles, were too lazy to even Google it, and then literally scrambled to explain "no- that can't be" when i produced the articles that said basically exactly what I told them they would. Whether I believe in what's written isn't even in question here. the fact that i'm still clarifying this, and all of this is a great example of how simple communication about a simple subject can be very difficult.
>
>I'm just laughing at how strongly some of you don't want to see you're in denial about how bad the situation in this state is.

Boy the real world must be awful for a lot of you guys. Idk how you all last 5 minutes in this state, or maybe that's why they're hostile and insulting by default.

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shin_datenshi t1_j1tk8ne wrote

i misrembered that a reddit headline and an article headline can be different. I'm sorry for such an egregious error. idrc about either of those things. I was bringing up another post sarcastically. Less people less crime, get it?

That wasn't supposed to be serious enough for you morons to jump down my throat and then move the goalpoasts after I show you the article I simply saw and was making FUN OF.

More people are leaving NY by % than any other county, duh it's mostly covid, and idc what the point is other than the article says 300k left and y'all tried to move the goalposts repeatedly. is that a "record"? who cares? no shit those factors reduce everything.

I got your source, you didn't think I'd actually come up with it, quit whining. If you don't wanna believe them research for yourself instead of being closed minded, what a concept.

I don't read this drivel regularly(ever) also, nice try.

again I never claimed to even agree with one side or another of this argument, yet here we are.

also if you look up i tried to be nice to you. Way to go, prick. Hope you have a good rest of your week.

Can't even be nice to an internet stranger, can't say I expect any better from "This is a narrative that they've invented from cherry picked stories and statistics so that they can yell about how Democratic run cities are falling apart. It doesn't reflect the reality of actually living in places like NYC at all." Of course you're one of those, lol. You live here, sure. In your own little bubble separate from reality with a million others. Why did I even bother.

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Evening_Presence_927 t1_j1ss11k wrote

That article’s from last year, though. Anything from this year?

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shin_datenshi t1_j1tkb9f wrote

Those stats won't be accurate yet, only good for estimates. People are still leaving in large amounts from what I've seen and read. We'll have to wait and see on that one.

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Evening_Presence_927 t1_j1tmkvl wrote

What have you seen and read from this year? It can’t be that true if the demand for rentals are as high as it is.

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shin_datenshi t1_j1tmwwj wrote

goalposts moved again? fine.

Joe Robison is a data reporter for moveBuddha.com.

2022 moveBuddha data shows that Webster, NY has the highest move ratio so far this year, with 134 moves in for every 100 moves out. The next highest cities are Ithaca, NY (127 to 100) and Fairport, NY (126 to 100).

The worst move ratio goes to Jamaica, NY with only 27 moves in for every 100 moves out. Followed by Bronx, NY (36 to 100) and Staten Island, NY (27 to 100).

Those leaving New York in 2022 are mostly headed to Florida, California, and Texas, in that order. Together, they comprise of over 40% of moves out of NY.

moveBuddha’s data in 2022, shows NY has the #4 worst move ratio.

Are people leaving New York in 2022?

Start spreading the news: Plenty of New Yorkers are leaving today. And while NYC is seeing the most out-moves compared to welcoming new residents, almost everywhere in the Empire State is feeling some loss. What are the cities with the biggest influx and outflux?

New York state has long been a place where immigrants and dreamers could come up in the world, a place that knows what it means to make it big. New York City rose to the top of the U.S. population charts by 1850, partly because it helped grow the state’s economy with the Erie Canal and the country’s first regular rail service across the state, building thriving communities from Albany to Buffalo. But the tide is turning.

In 2020 alone, New York City experienced a temporary exodus of residents relocating to avoid the COVID-19 pandemic. Not only is NYC one of the densest in the country, but it was also a pandemic epicenter early on, reinforcing the idea that those huddled masses weren’t safe for residents yearning to breathe free. Add the possibility of remote work and the high cost of living, and New Yorkers found it was time to make their move. Upstate, residents continued their exodus, too.

But while the pandemic was temporary, New York state’s outmigration has proven to have staying power. We wanted to look at the moveBuddha data to find out who is leaving the Empire State, which cities they’re leaving, and where they’re heading.

Table of Contents

I. Moving to New York: Statewide trends from the last decade and during the new decade’s great migration

II. 2022 Forecast: Which New York cities are surging in popularity and which are losing residents?

III. Real Insights: We asked locals, why are people leaving New York?

IV. Sources and Methodology

I. New York Exodus

New York lost more residents than any other state from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021, according to U.S. Census population estimates. During this time, the state registered the biggest numeric decline in the country, at a 319,020 population loss. And that makes sense, largely because of how hard NY was hit by the COVID-19 Pandemic during this time.

moveBuddha data from 2022 shows that the state of New York hasn’t bounced back. It ranks alongside other states seeing significantly more moves exiting the state than moving in:

New Jersey

California

Illinois

New York

According to search queries from the first 6 months of 2022, New York has the #4 worst move ratio, with only 65 searches in for every 100 searches out.

Both moveBuddha and U.S. Census data show that, as a whole, New York is seeing fewer people move in than out over the past few years. And the trend shows no signs of slowing down: New York moving searches make up 10.4% of moveBuddha’s total queries from January 1, 2022-August 5, 2022.

Locations near New York City account for the biggest losses, even adjusted for population. In fact, the U.S. Census shows that 4 of the top 10 counties in percent population decline from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021 are in New York:

#1 New York County (-6.9%)

#6 Kings County (-3.5%)

#8 Bronx County (-3.2%)

#9 Queens County (-3.1%)

Virus or not, the recovery of counties surrounding New York City may mirror that of other pandemic patients—slow, and full of setbacks. Here are some common culprits that could be responsible for New York’s high number of out-moves:

Economic Trouble: The pandemic shuttered a third of New York’s businesses, and current unemployment in New York County is 11.2% (the national average is just 6%). Underemployment is also a problem, particularly for people of color.

Skyrocketing Rents: While fewer residents are employed, average rents have risen every year for the past five years, despite the declining population.

Cost of Living Crisis: New York City is the most expensive place for renters in the nation, and the cost of living is 87% above average. Without jobs, it’s hard to imagine how rents have soared 39.9% year over year.

High Taxes: With common origin states having some of the highest taxes in the country and destination states having some of the lowest, many point the finger at taxes.

Where are Empire State residents going? According to moveBuddha data, Florida, California, and Texas top the list, making up over 40% of all out-of-state moves.

now you may draw whatever conclusion you may, that's what you're entitled to. But I don't have to sit here and entertain everyone's nonsense either. Someone too lazy to Google for themselves insulting me for citing an article I NEVER said I agreed with. That's enough of that for today.. some of y'all are hopeless, I could waste my time forever and they'd never make any progress.

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Evening_Presence_927 t1_j1trk5a wrote

I never moved any goalposts, I simply asked for sources.

Can you show me this data directly from moveBuddha?

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shin_datenshi t1_j1u7cul wrote

I provided the source friend. I just googled these things using basic search terms. Go find it if you care, I'd love to hear more or discuss further. If you really can't I'll dig up whatever I clicked on from my history, all good.

The "demand for rentals" is a big line of BS just like everything else our state gets their disgusting greasy fingers on. Haven't noticed yet? Genuinely. The prices doubled in a year, there is no reason like oil racketeering or demand or COVID or the semiconductor crisis or the fact that Suffolk lost everyone's SSN and personal info this year, the Ever Given, all the global conflicts. IS there high demand? absolutely. But it's just being used as an excuse, it does not correlate remotely with the actual (what it should be for any average NY property) and thousands fell for it so they'll keep selling their lie.

add ALL that together and it still doesn't explain why rent in the US is 200% of what it should be across the board and my coffee cost 5 dollars instead of 2. Don't want to believe me? lucky for you. Unfortunately I have to be relatively on the pulse of these industries to make a living so I simply don't have the luxury of ignoring it.

like I said anyway, most importantly it's still December. You can't rely on any of those types of metrics not to be wildly adjusted or re-contextualized after even 1-2 years of hindsight. right now looking at 2021 and 2020 will give you more useful info anyway.

E: also it wasn't just you, i apologize. every single reply had some secondary qualification that wasn't very relevant or required minimal effort to validate without having to make me do it because people are lazy. Normally i make people pay me to deal with this nonsense.

Not like anyone here ever admits when they're wrong so no big deal at all. My property doubled in value this year and I think it's the dumbest thing ever because if anything it's a much worse place to live than the last time taxes and properties were evaluated by far, so anyone can argue that however you please, seriously I want to understand.

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