Kinda gets at the fundamental question of whether it’s a drop in violence that opens the gates of gentrification, or if the money comes first, and that increase in wealth causes the violence to drop (either by enriching and/or displacing the original more crime-prone residents).

If it’s the drop in violence that comes first, then yeah…still a little rough to draw in folks. But if it’s there latter, then the drop in violence will come after.

One story you hear is that after we hit peak crime in 1990 and crime started consistently dropping, people became more comfortable returning to urban environments, and this happened to roughly coincide with when millennials, the largest generation ever, were hitting adulthood (and desperate to escape the boring suburbs of there youth).

So, falling crime + huge generation of young people desiring city life -> urban renewal.

But now, millennials are (belatedly) hitting family formation years, which traditionally means move to the burbs [see note]. And with increasing crime and Gen Z being smaller in size, I’m not positive the right conditions are there for that to happen again.

And I think between richer millennials leaving and poorer Gen Z coming in, and crime going up, whether you believe money chases out violence or a drop in violence welcomes in money, conditions don’t seem ideal wide either.

[note] the urbanism of millennials tends to mean they favor the denser “streetcar suburbs” that still have walkability and city rail access, while also allowing for the “bigger house with a yard and better schools and less crime” that drive families out of the city.

So my personal guess is the current/next wave of renewal will continue to be millennial driven, but be in places like Collingwood, Ardmore, and the other walkable urban-adjacent suburbs….but I do think many are trying to raise families in the city. (Personally, in my friend group, the city leavers are outnumbering the stayers.)

I’m kind of on the fence about whether America’s urban renewalism has already peaked, and we’re now on the decline, or whether it’ll rebound after we get past the current hurdles of high rates, inflation, energy issues, and the lingering effects of the pandemic.