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cagriuluc t1_jblfktq wrote

Reply to comment by MonteChristo0321 in I just published an article in The Journal of Mind and Behavior arguing that free will is real. Here is the PhilPapers link with free PDF. Tell me what you think. by MonteChristo0321

Imprecision in predictions is basically unavoidable in any domain. Weather prediction is a good example.

Take a much more chaotic system than weather, the human mind, and you have more imprecision. Not to mention the hardness of getting informed about the state of human mind which is required for accurate predictions.

With a good enough prediction model and good enough means to be informed about the state of my mind, you can know whether I will skip dinner.

Everything points to the conclusion that we cannot guess because we don't know enough and it's chaotic.

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matlockpowerslacks t1_jbm2iki wrote

I like the analogy.

For all we know, our current state of brain analysis is a blind person sitting in a house, trying to figure out if it will rain tomorrow.

The task seems impossible, though an astute individual could possibly make some accurate prediction based on information that seems invisible to most. However impressive this skill, it would be nothing compared to modern meteorology and its vast array of thermometers, barometers, radars, satellites and dozens of other measuring tools. A few hundred years ago it would have been sorcery.

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