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XiphosAletheria t1_iyndraz wrote

I think the problem there is that people don't generally know such probabilities in the first place. I doubt the vast majority of people could tell you what their chance of being in a car accident is normally, or what it increases to when they are drunk. Nor do they probably think of it as a chance of "them killing someone". An accident is by definition beyond someone's personal control. Likewise, your charitable donation example seems unrealistic, because those numbers are pretty much never going to come up - charities typically rely on emotional appeals rather than mathematical ones.

And the numbers tend not to matter anyway. Obviously it is better to donate and try to save a life than to not donate and guarantee the death (if you believe in a moral obligation to save lives), even if the chance of success is low.

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