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James19991 t1_je83oot wrote

Claiming train derailments are happening more and more is flat out not true.

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just_an_ordinary_guy t1_je8f8g2 wrote

Problem is, that statement is true. Yes, the raw number of derailments is down. But that's not a very useful statistic. They're running more miles than ever as the economy continually grows. If you look at derailments per million train miles, which is a better metric to look at, Norfolk Southern and CSX (both the big operators in this region) have both had increases in derailments per million train miles over the past decade, especially within the last few years for NS. A very big spike in NS derailments per million train miles. Very worrying.

In fact, the national trend is trending upwards in derailments per million miles, though I don't care to look into every individual class I railroad's statistics for this comment.

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69FunnyNumberGuy420 t1_je9qc7l wrote

Hey, remember when a bunch of people who worked on trains tried to strike to bring attention to this issue? If I remember correctly, The Most Progressive President Of My Lifetime told them to shut the fuck up and go back to work.

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dfiler t1_jef5e49 wrote

The issue of freight rail being safer than ever? ;-)

The railroad strike had nothing to do with the equipment failure that caused the EP derailment. Getting more sick days wouldn't have fixed that. I support most of their demands but that is a separate topic than derailment.

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69FunnyNumberGuy420 t1_jef6b1l wrote

> The issue of freight rail being safer than ever? ;-)

Except it isn't. and US freight rail is significantly less safe than European freight.
 
https://www.johnlocke.org/the-problem-with-americas-crumbling-railways/

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dfiler t1_jefnt8n wrote

Please reread, as you've misread the post you're replying to. It said nothing about relative rail safety. Instead, it was referring to how our freight rale is safer than ever. It has been getting dramatically safer for many decades.

Here's an article with some stats:
https://www.npr.org/2023/03/09/1161921856/there-are-about-3-u-s-train-derailments-per-day-they-arent-usually-major-disaste

Even with more rail miles traveled, there were 44% fewer derailments last year than in 2000. There were 1164 last year as compared to 8763 in 1978. Certainly, 1978 was a bad year but it demonstrates the trend.

If you want to investigate further, raw data is available from the Federal Railroad Administratrion Office of Safety Analysis:
https://safetydata.fra.dot.gov/OfficeofSafety/publicsite/Query/TenYearAccidentIncidentOverview.aspx

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69FunnyNumberGuy420 t1_jefpu2d wrote

"Less shitty than we used to be" is a meaningless metric when our rail system is incredibly unsafe compared to those of peer nations.

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dfiler t1_jefult1 wrote

Rail travel is still safer than flying and driving, per passenger mile traveled. The sky simply isn't falling. Europe having even safer trains does not make our trains unsafe.

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69FunnyNumberGuy420 t1_jefwh1f wrote

"This happens all the time and is perfectly safe!" - Me as a fireball engulfs the derailed tanker cars next to my house

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James19991 t1_je9rkgr wrote

Train derailments have dropped by 75% in the last 50 years.

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just_an_ordinary_guy t1_jeau0g6 wrote

Did you read literally anything I wrote? Yes, the raw number of derailments are down, but derailments per million miles is trending upwards nationally.

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MycologistQueasy22 t1_jebduwb wrote

What you said doesn't make mathematical sense. Fractions can't increase if the numerator goes down and the denominator goes up.

> Yes, the raw number of derailments is down. But that's not a very useful statistic. They're running more miles than ever as the economy continually grows

If they're running more miles than ever, and the number of derailments is down, then the derailments per mile has to be down too.

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just_an_ordinary_guy t1_jedbe90 wrote

Yeah, I messed up, but derailments per million miles is actually up. Where I goofed is I got the numbers flipped in my head for some reason. They're actually running fewer miles because precision scheduled railroading is consolidating shorter trains into much longer trains. So they need to run fewer miles to run the same amount, if not more, freight.

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MycologistQueasy22 t1_jebezul wrote

> Yes, the raw number of derailments is down. But that's not a very useful statistic. They're running more miles than ever as the economy continually grows.

If total derailments are down and total miles are up then derailments / miles is going to be lower not higher.

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just_an_ordinary_guy t1_jedbplu wrote

I already responded down thread to you, but I'll put it here just for people to see. For some reason I flipped the concept in my head, you're right on the math part. They're actually running fewer millions of miles these days because precision scheduled railroading is consolidating shorter trains into much longer trains. So they travel fewer miles to move the same amount, if not more, freight.

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69FunnyNumberGuy420 t1_je9q7of wrote

"No big deal, this happens all the time" I assure myself as vinyl chloride floods out of a derailed tanker and into my back yard.

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James19991 t1_je9rhch wrote

It literally does, and they happen nowhere near as often as they did 50 years ago.

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/09/1161921856/there-are-about-3-u-s-train-derailments-per-day-they-arent-usually-major-disaste#:~:text=Since%20the%20late%201970s%2C%20derailments,U.S.%2C%20which%20killed%2041%20people.

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69FunnyNumberGuy420 t1_je9rxv1 wrote

That doesn't mean we shouldn't do whatever we can to keep them from occurring, we have way more derailments than comparable countries.

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